Some first-round grades weren’t kind to Mahomes in 2017, but Chiefs may have set trend
Every NFL Draft selection comes with an element of risk, and the national perception was the Chiefs had taken a major one with their first selection in 2017.
The Chiefs even traded up to get the guy who they didn’t pay to play, must less start, as a rookie.
Turns out, the Patrick Mahomes pick was so good that his accomplishments in three seasons stand with the best in NFL history. This star quarterback has crammed nearly all his production thus far into the last two years.
From a pick that was far less than universally applauded, the Chiefs may have changed the thinking on such prospects.
“They were ahead of teams as far a being willing to take a shot on a raw guy with upside,” said Terez Paylor, who covered the 2017 Draft for The Star and has been a national NFL writer for Yahoo Sports for the past two seasons.
Anything less than game-changing ability with early-round quarterback prospects hardly seems worthwhile.
“It’s not 1999,” Paylor said. “You’re aiming for stud. That’s what’s going to get you through.”
The most highly regarded quarterbacks in the 2020 Draft, which begins Thursday, bring a dynamic quality.
The Cincinnati Bengals are expected to make Joe Burrow the overall top pick. Burrow is coming off a season in which he led LSU to a 15-0 record, the College Football Playoff championship and an NCAA-record 60 touchdown passes. Twelve of them came against Oklahoma and Clemson in the semifinal and final games.
The next quarterback expected to be selected is Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa or Oregon’s Justin Herbert. Both have strong arms and have displayed elusiveness.
Two other quarterbacks who project behind this group are intriguing for their respective makeup: Utah State’s Jordan Love and Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts.
Love is coming off a season in which he led FBS with 17 interceptions. But the previous year he threw 32 touchdown passes with six picks. Hurts has helped a team — Alabama or Oklahoma — to the College Football Playoff in all four of his college seasons. Both Love and Hurt can extend plays and escape the pocket.
Mahomes entered the 2017 with plenty of marks against him. He was 13-16 as a starter at Texas Tech, tossed 15 interceptions as a sophomore and was dinged for his footwork and decision -aking. He was merely a product of a pass-happy Air Raid offense, critics cried.
In a deal with the Buffalo Bills, the Chiefs moved up from No. 27 to No. 10 to select Mahomes. They also surrendered a third-round pick in that draft and their first-round pick in 2018.
The night of the selection, then-Chiefs general manager John Dorsey explained the move.
“These players … they don’t come by too often,” Dorsey said. “That’s why you have to take a shot at it.”
A misfire, some said in the moment.
USA Today gave the Chiefs a C-minus for the pick: “Calling Mahomes a project is an understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL and, honestly he may never be.”
Fox Sports went lower, giving the pick a D: “The Chiefs are all-on on Mahomes, and that’s a dangerous proposition.”
Not everyone was down on the pick. Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports and NFL.com gave the selection a B+. But almost everyone at the time was in agreement that the Texans, selecting Deshaun Watson two picks later, got the better quarterback.
Andy Reid, Dorsey, assistant general manager Brett Veach, who now holds the GM title in Kansas City, and area scout Willie Davis had poured more than a year of scouting and research into Mahomes. They knew they had found their future quarterback, one who arrived raw but promising.
“That’s why it’s important to have smart people, forward-thinking people in the organization,” Paylor said.
Perhaps a team will see something similar in Love or Hurts this week.