Who the Chiefs could play next week ... and who they might want to play
The Chiefs returned to practice Thursday, embracing a situation unfamiliar this season: Preparing for a football game without knowing for which team to prepare.
It could be the New England Patriots. Could be the Houston Texans. Could be the Buffalo Bills.
The reward for the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs is a bye week. The lone drawback is the unknown. So in the interim, coach Andy Reid said the Chiefs will focus more on themselves.
Until this weekend. The second-round opponent becomes clear Saturday, when both AFC Wild Card Round matchups are slated to take place. The Patriots play host to the Titans. If the Patriots win, they will travel to Arrowhead Stadium on Jan. 12. But if they lose, the winner of the Bills-Texans game is headed to Kansas City instead.
Which team should the Chiefs want to play? Here is how they match up with the three possibilities:
New England Patriots (12-4, AFC East champion, No. 3 seed)
Where the Chiefs could benefit: Tom Brady is still Tom Brady in name only.
The 42-year-old quarterback threw for his fewest touchdowns (24) since 2006 and fewest yards per game (253.6) since 2010. His weapons aren’t what they once were, either — absent retired tight end Rob Gronkowski, receiver Julian Edelman is the lone Pats pass-catcher who would necessitate a keyed game plan.
The Patriots ranked 15th in the NFL in total offense, their lowest ranking since 2003. In the Chiefs’ 23-16 win in New England last month, the Patriots had only one scoring drive of more than 46 yards. By game’s end, the Chiefs’ secondary seemed to know what was coming.
Per Football Outsiders, New England had the easiest schedule in football. The Patriots beat just two playoff teams — the Bills (twice) and the Eagles.
Cause for concern: Defense. The New England secondary, in particular, is quite good — its 25 interceptions were five more than any other team. Top cornerback Stephon Gilmore allowed just one touchdown this season, and he had six interceptions, often while locked on opponents’ No. 1 receivers. The Patriots were the best in the NFL against deep passes, per Next Gen Stats.
And, of course, there’s the history and the coach. Bill Belichick has an NFL-record 31 playoff wins. The Patriots have won six Super Bowls since 2002.
Projected line: Chiefs by 2 1/2 points, per BetOnline.ag oddsmakers.
Houston Texans (10-6, AFC South champion, No. 4 seed)
Where the Chiefs could benefit: A Houston franchise that has become known for its defense in recent seasons didn’t play all that well on that side of the ballin 2019.
In fact, the Texans allowed 388.3 yards per game, fifth most in football. The only four worse teams — Arizona, Detroit, Miami and Cincinnati — combined for 15 wins. That doesn’t bode well for slowing a Patrick Mahomes-led offense in the playoffs.
So the offense carried Houston, right? Well, the Texans were actually middle of the pack (13th) in yards. They’re often halted by their inability to protect the quarterback. Houston allowed nine sacks over its past two games. The Chiefs have the personnel to exploit that weakness, tallying 45 sacks this year.
Cause for concern: The quarterback. For all of this offense’s perceived and statistical weaknesses, Deshaun Watson is a flat-out playmaker. On-script or off, he gives the Texans a chance every week. He threw for 26 touchdowns and ran for seven more.
He also has one of the league’s most feared weapons at his disposal. Receiver DeAndre Hopkins totaled 104 catches this year.
Projected line: Chiefs by 7 1/2 points, per BetOnline.ag oddsmakers.
Buffalo Bills (10-6, AFC Wild Card, No. 5 seed)
Where the Chiefs could benefit: For all of the strides quarterback Josh Allen made in his second season — and the improvement is clear — he still remained just the league’s 24th-rated thrower. Only six offenses accounted for fewer passing yards than the Bills did this season.
And that’s despite a relatively favorable schedule. Football Outsiders rates the Bills as an average football team (expected win total of 7.7) that benefited from playing the league’s third-easiest schedule.
The Bills have not won a playoff game since 1995 (sound familiar?), the league’s third-longest drought.
Cause for concern: The Bills were second in the NFL in scoring defense at 16.2 points per game. They’re best against the pass, allowing just 195.2 yards per game through the air. Tre’Davious White is emerging as a top cover cornerback and has not allowed a touchdown all season, according to Pro Football Focus. The Bills selected White with the Chiefs’ pick in 2017, part of the Patrick Mahomes trade.
On offense, Buffalo does most of its damage running the football, accounting for 128.4 yards per game. Even with its late-season improvement, the Chiefs are still the seventh-worst team in the league against the run.
Projected line: Chiefs by 8 1/2 points, per BetOnline.ag oddsmakers.