Some national experts pick the Chiefs in New England. But do Vegas oddsmakers agree?
The national narrative might be trending toward a Kansas City victory in New England. The Vegas oddsmakers are not.
The Patriots of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick remain favored by a field goal Sunday against Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Foxborough, Massachusetts. They actually opened as 4-point favorites, but the betting public pushed the line.
Only slightly.
The more significant movement has come with the over/under total. That number opened at 51 points on most sportsbooks, but the money has been on the under this week, moving the line as low as 48 points on some websites.
Few statistics better illustrate just how much has changed in one year ... for both teams. In two matchups last season, the defenses struggled to get stops. The Chiefs and Patriots combined for 83 points in a regular season game that turned into a shootout after halftime, and then for 67 points in the AFC Championship Game, despite only 14 points scored in the first half.
The defenses are better this season, especially as of late. And the offenses have shown signs of inconsistency, particularly New England, with an increasingly obvious lack of options for quarterback Brady to target.
Even so, the Chiefs and Patriots rank among the favorites to come out of the AFC next month. While the Ravens are the betting favorite to win the AFC, the Patriots are second, with the Chiefs third.
The Chiefs are 7-5 against the spread this season after breezing past last week’s 10-point line against the Raiders. The Patriots are also 7-5 against the spread. Only four of New England’s 12 games have reached the over this season.