Chiefs’ keys vs. Patriots: Adjust to Belichick’s attacking defense and contain Edelman
Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady. Andy Reid vs. Bill Belichick. The heavyweight matchup that so many people circled on calendars when the regular-season schedule was released will finally happen Sunday.
The Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) and New England Patriots (10-2) square off in Week 14 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., marking a third consecutive regular season the two teams will play each other.
They know each other well, of course, from regular-season meetings and two postseason matchups in recent years. The most recent was in the last AFC Championship Game, where the Patriots defeated the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in January to advance to the Super Bowl, which the Patriots won.
The Chiefs hold an 18-16-3 edge in the all-time series during the regular season and this weekend can win their second game over the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in the last three seasons.
Under Reid, the Chiefs have averaged 34.8 points against the Patriots, topping 40 three times.
Nevertheless, this game will provide a good measuring stick for the Chiefs against a vulnerable Patriots team that’s coming off a loss and has struggled offensively in the past month.
Defensively, though, the Patriots are one of the NFL’s best units this season, ranking in the top-5 in numerous statistical categories, including allowing just 12.1 points per game.
Here are four key areas to monitor as the Chiefs look to potentially clinch the AFC West with a win and an Oakland Raiders loss.
Mahomes vs. Belichick
Pats coach Belichick carries a well-earned reputation of taking away a team’s primary strength, and arguably no coach in the league schemes better than the hoodie-wearing coach.
Chiefs quarterback Mahomes certainly understands this, noting he has watched tape of the AFC Championship Game to gain insight into how the Patriots could attack him again. Mahomes has pointed out that he’s held the ball too long on some occasions against New England.
When it comes to Belichick and how he’ll utilize his defense against an offense, the rule of thumb should always be to expect the unexpected.
“It’s a team that they’re going to have stuff that we didn’t necessarily prepare for because they’re going to do stuff they haven’t done in maybe two or three years,” Mahomes said.
How Mahomes adjusts to what he sees on the field will go a long way in determining the Chiefs’ chances Sunday. His ability to identify who Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore, an elite pass defender, is locked onto, and getting other receivers involved early, would help the Chiefs get off to a quick start.
Chiefs’ front five vs. Patriots’ front seven
This season, the Chiefs haven’t faced a defensive front that stunts as much as the Patriots do. New England has totaled 40 sacks this season — tied for fourth-most in the league. Linebacker Kyle Van Noy leads the charge with 6.5 and linebacker Jamie Collins is second with 6.
The Chiefs’ offensive line can’t afford to key only on Van Noy and Collins, however. New England’s defensive line has 16 of the Patriots’ 40 sacks.
Chiefs offensive line coach Andy Heck knows he’ll face some exotic pass rushes with plenty of stunting up front.
“For us, as an offensive line, (we’re facing) a very good and disciplined, aggressive defensive front that knows what they’re doing,” Heck said. “We also know what we’re doing; we’ve been together for a while now ... it will be fun to watch them go compete.”
It should help that all five Chiefs starters are healthy for the third consecutive game.
Chiefs’ defense against Pats’ RBs
Lost in the good feelings of the Chiefs’ 40-9 win over the Oakland Raiders last weekend was Josh Jacobs rushing for 104 yards on 17 carries, with 95 of those yards coming on 14 attempts in the first half before the Chiefs blew it open.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the Chiefs still have issues against the run despite their defensive surge over the past month. And they’re facing a formidable duo Sunday. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs’ 30th-ranked run defense, which allows 141.3 yards per game, has a busy afternoon.
The Patriots have a highly capable backfield pairing in Sony Michel and James White, a strong receiver out of the backfield.
The last time the Chiefs saw Michel in the playoffs, he rushed for 113 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries.
As a receiver, White enters Week 14 ranked second on the team in catches (57), receiving yardage (512), touchdowns (3) and targets (76).
Shut down one running back, and the Chiefs must be prepared to deal with the other.
Contain Julian Edelman
The Patriots’ offense is different this season, largely due to the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski.
With Gronk gone, the dangerous Edelman remains a favorite target for quarterback Tom Brady. Teams know the ball is going Edelman’s way, yet somehow can’t figure out a way to stop him.
Edelman enters Sunday’s game with 82 catches for 915 yards and five touchdowns on an eye-popping 123 targets. To put Edeleman’s production in perspective, only New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (110) and Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (86) have more catches.
What makes Edelman so unique is his ability to work underneath — and Brady’s unwavering trust.
Edelman will find quality opponents across the line of scrimmage, especially in cornerbacks Charvarious Ward, Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller. Safeties Tyrann Mathieu and rookie Juan Thornhill will be bracketing the coverage.
Kansas City might do well to take away Brady’s favorite receiving weapon and let someone else do the damage.
This story was originally published December 6, 2019 at 5:00 AM.
