Want a quantitative value on Mahomes’ potential absence? Vegas odds provide one
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ presence at practice this week took many by surprise.
It kept the betting public guessing, too.
The Chiefs-Packers line has entailed movement through the week, once even being taken off the board on several sportsbooks. The Packers are now favored by 4 points at Arrowhead Stadium, the first time this season the Chiefs have been underdogs.
With good reason. It goes without saying that Mahomes’ absence, confirmed by coach Andy Reid on Friday, will be a significant loss for Kansas City. How significant? Here’s a numerical value on it: According to Bovada, the Chiefs would be favored by 3 1/2 points if Mahomes was healthy and playing. That’s more than a touchdown difference.
After Reid announced Wednesday that Mahomes would take part in a portion of practice, many sportsbooks removed the line from their sites, waiting to determine his availability. With only limited participation, most correctly carried on as if Mahomes will miss the game.
But after initially preferring the Packers’ in the spread, enough to move the line from 3 to 5 points, the betting public has returned to the Chiefs, slimming the margin back to 4 points late in the week. That’s atypical movement over a three-day stretch.
The over/under for the game is 47 1/2 points, a low number involving the Chiefs this year, another product of the Mahomes’ injury.
With Matt Moore starting rather than Mahomes, Bovada offers under/under propositions of 19 1/2 completions and 247 1/2 yards for the veteran backup.
Some receiving yardage projections, courtesy of the website: Tyreek Hill, 74 1/2; Travis Kelce, 68 1/2.
The Chiefs are 3-4 against the spread this season, easily covering last week’s 3 1/2-point line against the Broncos. The Packers are 4-3 against the spread.
This story was originally published October 25, 2019 at 12:53 PM.