Scouting report: Chiefs vs. Patriots, 7:30 tonight at Arrowhead (ESPN and Ch. 9)

When the Chiefs run

Knile Davis proved to be more than adequate in place of Jamaal Charles, rushing for 132 yards and a tackle-busting TD at Miami last week, but Charles is the engine that makes this offense hum. Any contributions he can make would give the Chiefs a lift against a Patriots run defense that ranks No. 11. If rookie De’Anthony Thomas is recovered sufficiently from a hamstring strain, he could give the running game an added dimension.

When the Chiefs pass

Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith was more efficient in the last two games after the three-interception debacle in the opener, but he’s totally dependent on the short passing game to his tight ends and backs. Dwayne Bowe has caught just six passes for 72 yards in his two games, and he could be stranded on (Darrelle) Revis Island. Smith has been sacked 11 times, including once for a safety at Miami, and the Patriots sacked Minnesota’s Matt Cassel six times in week two. New England has six interceptions, tied for the league lead entering the weekend.

When the Patriots run

The Patriots will try to establish the run against the Chiefs, who are allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season and rank No. 23 in rush defense. Stevan Ridley rushed for more than 100 yards in week two against Minnesota, but his longest run is just 16 yards. Ridley’s good in the red zone, though, as his 20 rushing touchdowns are the most in the AFC since 2012.

When the Patriots pass

Tom Brady has looked rather ordinary this season and has thrown just three TD passes. But it’s not all his fault. His receivers are having difficulty getting open, and the pass protection has been spotty, allowing seven sacks. Brady has not thrown an interception (the Chiefs have yet to force a turnover) and rarely makes the critical mistake.

Special teams

Normally, this is an area dominated by the Chiefs, but this year, not so much. They surrendered kickoff returns of 40 and 74 yards last week at Miami; committed three egregious penalties on their returns; and punt returner Frankie Hammond Jr. made some dubious decisions on fielding punts inside his 5. Kicker Cairo Santos is not in the same league as New England’s Stephen Gostkowski, who has made all eight of his field-goal attempts.

Coaching

New England’s Bill Belichick is 4-0 against the Chiefs’ Andy Reid, including the Patriots’ 24-21 victory over Philadelphia in Super Bowl XXXIX. But Belichick, a surefire Hall of Famer, has the advantage over just about everybody — his 220 career wins rank fifth all-time.

X-factor

Hard to believe the Chiefs have lost four straight at Arrowhead dating to last season. If the fans are anything like the crowd that packed the place for the last two Monday night games at Arrowhead — wins over San Diego in 2010 and 2011 — the advantage can be huge.

Bottom line: Chiefs 19-17

Despite myriad injuries, the Chiefs have been resilient, and Reid will find a way to out-finesse a Patriots team that lost by two touchdowns at Miami and beat shorthanded Minnesota and woeful Oakland.

Randy Covitz, rcovitz@kcstar.com

This story was originally published September 29, 2014 at 11:12 AM with the headline "Scouting report: Chiefs vs. Patriots, 7:30 tonight at Arrowhead (ESPN and Ch. 9)."