Will Cole Ragans have a 2026 resurgence? Breaking down Royals’ starting pitching

The Kansas City Royals are loaded with starting pitching depth this spring. And it shouldn’t come as a major surprise.

The Royals built their foundation on pitching and defense. The club has multiple former All-Star pitchers vying for a spot in the rotation. It’s clear that Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic will occupy the bulk of the rotation.

The veteran group has produced dominant stretches in recent years. Ragans is among the best pitchers in the majors — he ranked No. 89 in a recent polling of Major League Baseball’s top-100 players — despite shaking off a significant shoulder injury in 2025.

Ragans returned for the final stretch in September. He posted a 2.77 ERA with 22 strikeouts across 13 innings pitched. The Royals feel confident with Ragans as the staff ace and look forward to a healthy 2026 campaign.

The Royals also know what they have in Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. The duo continues to anchor the starting rotation with leadership and experience.

Lugo is the consummate professional. He has a mix of 10-12 pitches that he throws regularly to both sides of the plate. Last season, Lugo dealt with a few injuries — mainly a finger sprain and back tightness — that contributed to a down year.

The Royals hope Lugo returns to form. He didn’t pitch in September and should be ready for spring training.

Wacha will provide consistency in his third season in Kansas City. Meanwhile, Bubic enters with several questions around his health. He was a first-half standout but missed the remainder of the season with a left rotator cuff strain.

Bubic is expected to be ready for spring training. It will be an important season as Bubic enters the final year of his contract.

The Royals also have Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Bailey Falter and Luinder Avila as potential starting depth. The group figures to battle for the final spot in the rotation during Cactus League play.

Here’s a look at key storylines surrounding Royals starters:

Will Kris Bubic rebound from injury?

Bubic was the subject of trade rumors this offseason. There was legitimate interest as he is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year.

The Royals were in the market for an impact bat. It led to trade conversations, but Bubic remains with the organization.

That could be a good thing for the Royals.

Bubic was arguably the club’s best pitcher in 2025. He posted a 2.55 ERA in 20 starts while registering 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The Royals ultimately shut down Bubic due to his left shoulder injury, but he didn’t require surgery.

In his absence, the Royals got quality starts from Cameron, Bergert and Kolek, among others. The starting depth could allow Bubic to be eased back into the rotation after a long layoff.

Expect the Royals to remain cautious in spring training. However, if Bubic can return to his pre-All-Star Break numbers, the Royals could be in store for another resurgent campaign.

Who wins the 5th starter spot?

The Royals are pretty much set in their rotation. As previously mentioned, the rotation figures to feature Ragans, Lugo, Wacha and Bubic in some capacity.

This leaves the fifth starter spot in question. This spring, the Royals could have an in-camp competition between multiple guys.

Cameron is the likely favorite entering the spring. He finished fourth in American League Rookie of the Year voting and shined when called up last season. The left-hander posted a 2.99 ERA in 24 starts and showed extreme poise on the mound.

Now, Cameron will head into his second season. It’s fair to question whether teams have adjusted to him moving forward. Early indicators in camp will be important as Cameron navigates the spring months.

Bergert and Kolek also have a fair shot. Both players fared well once acquired from the San Diego Padres at the deadline. They meshed with Royals pitching coach Brian Sweeney and showed encouraging improvement down the stretch.

It’s important to note that both players have options. The Royals could either place them in the bullpen or even stash them in Triple-A if they aren’t in the rotation.

Lastly, Falter is a player to watch. He has MLB starting experience and could fit in a variety of roles as needed … or become a trade piece.

What to expect from Royals’ young prospects?

The Royals have a lot of confidence in their young pitchers. The club views Avila as a potential starter, and he will get a chance to build upon his 2025 campaign.

Avila made his MLB debut in a relief role. He showed promise with a 1.29 ERA across 14 innings pitched. Avila allowed two earned runs and logged 16 strikeouts while garnering some high-leverage work.

The Royals can deploy Avila in several ways. His relief experience gives him different avenues to make the opening day roster — whether in long relief or a hybrid role.

Other prospects to know include Ben Kudrna, Steven Zobac and Mason Black. The trio are on the 40-man roster and have high-level experience in the minors.

Both Kudrna and Zobac were protected from the Rule 5 Draft in December. Kudrna reached Triple-A Omaha last season and made four appearances (three starts). He is the seventh ranked prospect in the system.

Meanwhile, Zobac is an intriguing prospect. He throws a ton of strikes and was named the organizational pitcher of the year in 2024. The Royals love his high-spin fastball and command of his secondary pitches.

Zobac dealt with injuries last season. However, he has the talent to potentially make the jump from Double-A to Triple-A very quickly.

Black was acquired from the Giants this offseason. He has appeared in 10 MLB games (eight starts) and owns a career 6.47 ERA.

Bold Prediction: Ragans finishes AL strikeout king

There is an arms race in the American League. Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal and Boston Red Sox standout Garrett Crochet are among the best lefties in the game.

Last season, Crochet led the majors with 255 strikeouts. Skubal was right behind him with 241 and is a two-time Cy Young Award winner.

However, Ragans stands right alongside them. In 2024, Ragans posted 224 strikeouts and finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting. Ragans can be dominant — when healthy — and enters 2026 looking to reclaim his top spot.

Ragans will compete for the strikeout crown next season. His 224 strikeouts in 2024 would’ve been third-most in the majors in 2025.

Expect more high-speed velocity from the Royals’ ace.

Projected starting rotation

As of late January, the Royals’ most likely starting rotation appears to be:

Cole Ragans | Seth Lugo | Michael Wacha | Kris Bubic | Noah Cameron