How likely are the Royals playoff chances? These factors could determine their season
The Kansas City Royals control their own destiny. After eight seasons sitting idle in the American League Central cellar, the Royals have postseason dreams.
Dreams can often imitate reality. And the Royals are visualizing a chance to make their own Major League Baseball history.
However, if the Royals are not careful, they could be staring at a potential nightmare scenario.
The Royals sit at 82-71 with nine games remaining. All eyes are on a playoff berth and the AL Wild Card seems the most likely path. KC remains 1 ½ games ahead of the Minnesota Twins for the second Wild Card spot (of three) and trails the Baltimore Orioles by 2 ½ games for the top Wild Card position.
Conversely, the Royals are two games from being out of the postseason. KC was swept by the Detroit Tigers this week.
“We still control our own fate as far as getting into the playoffs, and that’s all you can really ask for,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “We have to play better and we have to win some games.
The Royals are on pace for 87 wins after finishing with a 56-106 record last season. It would match the third-best regular-season turnaround since 1961.
Still, the final regular-season stretch will not be easy.
The Royals have a flawed lineup, an injured bullpen and overworked starters. They are pushing hard to the finish line with crucial series remaining against the San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves.
What key factors will influence the Royals’ playoff fate? Here are a few things to ponder down the stretch.
Will the starting pitching hold up?
The Royals have built their identity behind starting pitching. It was the No. 1 goal on general manager J.J. Picollo’s vision board this offseason.
Last season, KC starters had a 5.12 combined ERA. There were 23 pitchers that made at least one start during the year. At times, Quatraro utilized bullpen games to log innings or just to finish series.
Things are vastly different. Picollo was successful in signing reliable veterans Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha in free agency. Then, he added Michael Lorenzen to fortify the starting unit at the 2024 trade deadline.
“That’s where it all starts,” Picollo said. “We’re in every game, win or lose. We are in every single game. So it definitely starts with that.”
The trio brought a new mentality to the pitching staff. And their presence has positively impacted young starters Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Alec Marsh.
The veterans have pitched in big games. Lugo and Wacha are not afraid of the postseason bright lights. Lorenzen, who is currently on the 15-day injured list, is the ultimate competitor. He is willing to take the baseball in either a starting role or in relief.
The Royals are in the playoff race due to their pitching staff. Prior to Wednesday’s game, Royals starters had a 3.54 combined ERA. Six pitchers have made at least 23 starts this season.
Starting pitching travels in the playoffs. And the Royals have the arms to compete against the top AL teams.
“You can’t worry about matchups,” Picollo said. “It’s probably going to come down to the last game of the season.”
KC will go as far as the starters lead them. It’s a reason to feel optimistic about what the club can do when games matter the most.
The question remains: How much gas will the starters have left in the tank?
Can the Royals find consistent offense?
The Royals know what they have in Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. The star duo can carry the lineup on any given night.
Witt became the first MLB shortstop to have multiple 30-30 seasons. Perez reached 250 career home runs and made his ninth All-Star game. Both players eclipsed 25 home runs and 100 RBIs this season.
There are no questions regarding Witt and Perez. However, there are valid concerns with the rest of the lineup. Simply, the Royals need more consistent offense.
On Tuesday, KC fell 3-1 to the Tigers and left 10 runners on base. The club was also 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. Things weren’t much better Wednesday. The Royals scored two runs but were outclassed by the Tigers pitching staff.
“I don’t worry,” Perez said. “I think we are going to be fine and I think we are going to make it to the playoffs. It’s the kind of mentality that we have in here. Everyone has a bad series, and it’s a part of the game.”
In recent weeks, the Royals have found themselves in close games. The pitching staff has kept it close, but the offense has failed to produce the game-breaking hit.
“We are playing good ball,” outfielder Hunter Renfroe said. “Our pitchers are pitching phenomenal. We have to go out there and support them a little bit run-wise.”
Still, the downward trend must change in the playoffs. Runs will be at a premium and execution is key in critical moments.
The Royals need more than Witt and Perez to win playoff games. Unsung heroes define the postseason. Could new acquisitions Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham or Yuli Gurriel give the club a late-season boost?
As Vinnie Pasquantino remains on the shelf with a thumb injury, the Royals have to find additional production.
Bullpen health a major concern?
The Royals are down multiple relievers at the moment. Experienced veterans Will Smith, Hunter Harvey and Chris Stratton are on the sidelines.
This week, James McArthur was placed on the 15-day injured list. He is dealing with a Grade 1 ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) sprain in his right elbow.
The injuries have come at an inopportune time. The Royals are hopeful to get each reliever back for the playoffs. In the meantime, Quatraro is rolling with the likes of Sam Long, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV, John Schreiber and Lucas Erceg in high-leverage roles.
Erecg is finding his way as a closer. Lynch and Bubic are starters that were thrust into bullpen roles. The group is still learning how to pitch in pressure moments while trying to protect late leads.
It’s a process that takes time to master. The Royals could face a challenge to match up against top offenses late in games. The final nine games will be important for the relief corps to hit its stride.
“They’re here to pitch,” Quatraro said of the different relief arms. “I mean, they are not here to observe. If there is an opportunity for them to get in there and help us win, that’s why they are here.”
Injuries are unavoidable and the Royals are counting on a relatively inexperienced group at the moment. How they perform in late-game situations will be key.
Have the Royals learned from adversity?
The Royals have shown the ability to bounce back from tough stretches.
There was a 20-game gauntlet that included series against the Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins. Each team is in playoff contention late in the season.
KC had a 9-11 record during that stretch. It also included a season-high seven-game losing streak.
“We are definitely ready for any task at hand,” outfielder MJ Melendez said. “... I’ve seen everybody rise to the occasion. I feel like every single guy in this locker room has come up in a clutch situation.”
The Royals found a way to maintain their playoff position. Now, the postseason margin has narrowed significantly.
The club has shown strength through adverse moments. The team slogan of “Today” will be tested as the regular-season winds down.
The Royals know they can compete with the top of the league. In October, they look to show it on the national stage.
“You’ve got to play nine innings and do the little things right like we have done all year,” utilityman Garrett Hampson said. “(We need to have) good baserunning, good defense and put some at-bats together to score some runs. You know, we will be just fine.”
