An agent breaks down who’s hurt, and helped, by looming changes to MLB’s 2020 draft
Changes to Major League Baseball’s amateur draft will certainly be noticeable this year. The COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak has limited amateur and professional sports in all forms. MLB teams’ approach to the draft shouldn’t be too affected by the shutdown, but it will most definitely alter the dynamic for draft-eligible players.
Royals general manager Dayton Moore told The Star last month that MLB clubs — while not afforded as many looks at a draft prospect as they’d like — would be more than capable of making the assessments and decisions needed to hold a draft. The information gathered on many top players dates back to when they were 14.
The Royals hold the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft, as well as Nos. 32, 41, 77, 106 and 136 through the first five rounds.
Scott Barber, attorney and agent at Ballengee Group, echoed Moore’s sentiments from an organizational standpoint, but also shed some light on which potential draft prospects will lose out in the adjusted-format draft ... and how college baseball could be the ultimate winner.
“I think teams would, of course, rather have the extra in-person looks than to not have them, and model-based teams will lack the most recent/relevant bulk of their coveted information (how college hitters do against Friday night pitchers, how pitchers perform against strong P5 teams, etc),” Barber said via email.
The Ballengee Group represents several players in the Royals’ system and 40-man roster, including relief pitcher Jake Newberry and outfielder Nick Heath.
Extensive evaluation
After speaking with multiple scouting directors and baseball executives, Barber estimated 95 percent of players projected in the Top 300 had been extensively evaluated. MLB clubs have been able to establish a performance history and deep familiarity with these prospects.
“The players hurt by the shortened spring are the ones getting some late helium for this year’s draft — either the (high school) upside kid who was starting to realize his potential adding some velocity or the pop-up kid who was starting to fill out and really impact the baseball,” Barber wrote. “They will likely end up in college now for 3 years and we’ll see them again in 2023.”
Last week, MLB loosened restrictions on scouting and allowed scouts to call, text, email or utilize video-conferencing with players. Scouts were also allowed to send assessments, psychological evaluations and other tests that can be conducted remotely. In-person contact is still not allowed.
Previously, the league had prevented all scouting activities in order to keep clubs from seeking to gain an advantage during the global pandemic and many states imposing shelter-in-place or stay-at-home orders.
Of course, an environment devoid of on-field activities figures to make it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for a draft prospect to significantly increase his stock in the eyes of evaluators.
“As you know, prospects are currently allowed to submit video and data, but only if the information came from baseball activities that took place prior to March 27, 2020,” Barber wrote. “This would include any data collected from TrackMan, Rapsodo, and other technologies — and that’s assuming amateur prospects even have access to that data, which most do not.
“Because of the temporary scouting rules and limitations to develop any new material implemented by MLB in an effort to prioritize the health of everyone involved in the scouting process, I think clubs will go with what they have obtained to date from their own scouting personnel and process.”
Shortcuts
During negotiations between MLB and the MLB Players’ Association, both sides agreed MLB had the leeway to shorten the draft to as few as five rounds from its typical 40. MLB could choose to have anywhere from five to 40.
The NCAA granted an added year of college eligibility for spring sports athletes, which will provide more players, including seniors, the option of returning for another collegiate season.
Barber warns that this extra year of eligibility, while the right move for the NCAA, doesn’t necessarily give draft prospects added leverage. One of the best predictors of future success for prospects is “age for level.” Remaining in college as opposed to joining the professional ranks may only mean that a prospect starts at the same level next year, only a year older.
The potential of a shortened draft will certainly make for interesting decisions, but Barber believes those decisions will be similar in many ways to those in past years for players in the early rounds.
“Every player is unique and values the college experience differently,” Barber wrote. “If a player feels an offer doesn’t meet what they perceive their true value to be, whether that be because of artificial constraints imposed on them from this year’s draft or because it simply doesn’t meet their bonus demands to forgo attending college or to leave college early, they have a good opportunity waiting for them to be a student-athlete.”
Barber also added that it’s become hard to say who even projects to be a fifth- through 10th-round pick these days because so many college seniors are selected in those rounds to help clubs save bonus-pool money.
A five-round draft figures to significantly bolster the college ranks in 2021, as players who may have been selected in rounds 6-10 may find college baseball a more appealing option than signing as an non-drafted free agent for $20,000.
“If the draft ends up only being 5 rounds this year, and a player would have been selected in the 6th round for full slot any other year, it would certainly make for a tough decision to forgo college and accept $20k as a NDFA,” Barber said. “That’s where a shortening of this magnitude is really going to hurt prospects as well as diminish the influx of talented players into pro ball. If I have any prediction, it’s that college baseball coaches are the winners in all of this and the Road to Omaha is going to be phenomenal the next few years!”
