If 2020 is to feature a Royals turnaround, the momentum would begin this winter
The World Series is more than two weeks in the past.
Major League Baseball’s award season is in full swing.
The preliminary administrative contract paperwork has been handle — options have been accepted and declined, qualifying offers accepted and declined, players officially deemed free agents.
So now, the offseason begins in earnest. MLB’s top executives gather in Arizona this week as the reshaping of rosters for the 2020 season begins to unfold.
While the Kansas City Royals clearly enter a new era of the organization’s history, with a new manager taking the reins and an ownership change expected to become official later this month, the most significant change for faithful followers of the club will come in improvement upon the club’s record after back-to-back 100-loss seasons.
That starts with the offseason decisions and moves made by the baseball operations leadership group headed by general manager Dayton Moore this winter.
Here are three of the big question marks/areas of concern that should steer the Royals during the so-called hot stove portion of the baseball calendar.
Bullpen
While the starting pitching rotation and bullpen warrant their own separate concerns, the current starting corps may contain candidates to bolster the bullpen.
Of course, taking from Peter to pay Paul could have significant ramifications.
The Royals’ bullpen ERA of 5.07 ranked 14th in the 15-team American League. Only the Orioles posted a worse mark (5.79). Royals relievers also logged the third-fewest holds in the AL, the third-highest walk percentage (10.6 percent) and the second-lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.01-1).
In his first season as a reliever, Ian Kennedy stabilized the bullpen when he was moved into the closer’s role in May. He converted 30 of 34 save opportunities for a club that won just 59 games. Getting to him wasn’t always a smooth transition, especially after the Royals traded Jake Diekman in July.
The Royals must decide if they want to go a similar route as last season, piecing together a bullpen via a combination of additions through bargain shopping in free agency, middle-reliever types like Tim Hill and Kevin McCarthy and relatively inexperienced pitchers in their farm system — including several who’ve demonstrated electric stuff but inconsistent command, such as Richard Lovelady, Gabe Speier, Kyle Zimmer and Josh Staumont.
Another option could be to move one or two pitchers who’ve had mixed results as starters to the bullpen, where their stuff may play up and their effectiveness could increase by pitching in short bursts instead of turning a lineup over multiple times in an outing.
Names that come to mind immediately include Jorge Lopez, Glenn Sparkman and Heath Fillmyer, who’ve all shown flashes of potential at times in the rotation but have also lacked consistency. Fillmyer’s 2019 season was marred from the start by a shoulder ailment.
Jakob Junis’ fastball-slider combination seems like a potential fit for the bullpen, but 2019 opponents had a lower slash line (batting average/OBP/slugging) against him in their second and third plate appearances than their first.
Junis has also been the Royals’ most durable starter and led them in innings pitched the past two seasons. The rotation has needs of its own, and increased confidence in his changeup could push Junis to another level as a starter.
Starting rotation
Royals starting pitchers posted an ERA of 5.30 last season, which ranked 10th. By comparison, AL Central Division champion Minnesota ranked fifth (4.19) and division runner-up Cleveland ranked third (3.81).
Royals starters’ walk rate of 8.3 percent also ranked 10th in the AL. Only Chicago’s starters (8.3 percent) were worse among division foes. The Royals’ strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.2-1 ranked second to last in the AL, ahead of only the Toronto Blue Jays.
It appears the Royals enter the offseason with four starting rotation pieces in place, in right-handers Brad Keller and Junis along with left-handed veterans Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery.
The Royals acquired Montgomery in July with intentions of stretching him out in the summer and giving him a full offseason and spring training as a starter. In a way, he’ll serve as the sort of veteran free-agent pickup the Royals have made in recent years with Homer Bailey, Jason Vargas and Chris Young.
Even if Keller, Junis, Duffy and Montgomery begin the season in the rotation, that leaves the fifth spot, as well as starting depth, as areas in need of attention. The Royals will still must look for a viable starter on the free-agent market or rely on individual improvement among the group of pitchers that includes Eric Skoglund, Fillmyer, Lopez and Sparkman.
Their young pitching prospects, specifically starting pitching prospects, have been impressive and continue to make strides in the minors. But none appear ready to force their way into consideration right out of camp.
The Royals must also figure out the best way to utilize Jesse Hahn, a once promising starting option, after he returned from a year away due to injury, surgery and recovery.
Outfield
How the Royals envision their outfield shaking out will trickle down to their everyday infield alignment, because players like All-Star Whit Merrifield and breakout performer Hunter Dozier could start on the infield daily but are also considered outfield candidates.
It’s tempting to pencil Merrifield, who made his first all-star team and led the majors in hits for the second consecutive season, into the outfield assuming Gold Glove winner Alex Gordon returns to patrol left field.
Of course, that would require the Royals to either play Merrifield in center or come off their stance that AL home run champion Jorge Soler isn’t a full-time designated hitter.
If they cling to Soler in right field and Gordon returns, Merrifield would either go to center — limiting the chances for Bubba Starling and Brett Phillips to play in the majors — or perhaps bring in a free-agent acquisition.
The alternative? Merrifield would need to return to second base and take time away from Nicky Lopez. Lopez, who made his MLB debut in 2019, just started to get his footing late in the season.
Dozier should be a mainstay at third base, but the Royals experimented with him in the outfield down the stretch in 2019. If that experiment isn’t over, it creates more of a logjam.
Ryan McBroom, acquired from the New York Yankees after the minor-league season concluded, also saw time in the outfield. He swung the bat well in his initial taste of big-league ball. He’d fit better at first or in a platoon at first with Ryan O’Hearn, but if the outfield remains in play for him, it only tightens the squeeze.
Figuring out what they want to do in the outfield and whether or not Gordon will be part of it will set the table for a lot of decisions.
If Gordon retires, that also opens an everyday spot for Merrifield or another player if Soler is a full-time DH.
The Royals could always choose to trade one of their established players — perhaps Merrifield or Soler — for pitching help. That would also free up space for either internal options in the outfield or a free-agent addition.
This story was originally published November 11, 2019 at 5:00 AM.
