Baseball’s ‘fourth true outcome’? People don’t seem to want to watch the other three

Every so often, someone releases a new idea or phrase into the atmosphere, it catches on and people start using it.

For instance: “The three true outcomes.”

This is now baseball language for walks, strikeouts and home runs. According to Baseball Reference, these are considered “true outcomes” because they’re the only events that do not involve the defensive team, other than the pitcher and catcher.

Also according to Baseball Reference, the term was “reportedly coined” by a Baseball Prospectus writer and it caught on because “it reflected a reality no one could ignore.”

Well, here’s a fourth true outcome that reflects a reality no one can ignore:

The first three outcomes are boring.

Move along, nothing to see here

Let’s take a moment and consider the definition of a true outcome: seven guys not doing anything.

If that were entertaining, we could save money by watching any eight-man road construction crew.

A base on balls features a guy walking to first base, a strikeout offers us the scintillating action of a guy walking back to the dugout and while a home run is exciting for the brief time it takes the ball to leave the yard, after that we’re watching nine guys watch one guy jog around the bases.

If it’s a really dramatic home run, the guy who hit it might grab his crotch.

Remove sacrifice bunts (the numbers guys don’t like them), stolen bases (the numbers guys don’t like them) and ignore the opportunity to hit a single the other way (the numbers guys like home runs better) and you’re left with a glorified game of home run derby.

Everybody is standing around waiting for someone to hit a home run; action is being taken out of the game.

Think back to October 12, 2015, and the eighth inning of the Royals’ playoff game against the Houston Astros. The Royals were down 6-2 when the inning started but scored five runs to take the lead.

And they did it on five singles, an error and a groundout.

No matter which team you rooted for, watching that inning unfold, pitch by pitch, hitter by hitter, tied your stomach in knots.

That was exciting baseball.

Is the sky actually falling?

Watch baseball long enough and you’re sure to hear some old-timer talk about “kids today” and how they’re ruining the game.

I once heard a retired player complain about how today’s players wear their uniforms and display enough jewelry to supply a Fort Knox outlet store.

But when this guy played, he had an Afro the size of a small planet and wore his stirrup socks so high they were nothing but a string of color running up the side of his white sanitary socks. The old-timers of that day complained about him.

So if someone is always saying the sky is falling, why can’t we just ignore the warnings?

Because this time, Chicken Little has some evidence.

2012 compared to 2019

According to Baseball Reference, 2012 is the last time MLB’s attendance increased over the previous year. Since then, attendance has dropped steadily and is currently on track to take another big dip in 2019.

If you’re the kind of baseball fan who enjoys numbers, here are some worth considering: In 2012, total attendance was 74,859,268; and if things don’t change, this year it will be just over 64 million.

That’s a lot of fans to lose in a short amount of time.

That’s why MLB is so freaked out and screwing up the game with a bunch of new rules intended to make games shorter and more entertaining. In terms of fan interest, baseball is circling the drain and MLB is determined to get those fans back even if it means putting the pitcher’s mound somewhere behind second base.

And while attendance has gone down, guess what’s gone up?

The three true outcomes.

Compared to 2012, there are now more walks per game, more strikeouts per game and more home runs per game.

These days, hitters are trying to walk and looking for home run pitches to hit, and that means more pitches per plate appearance, more pitchers used per game and longer ballgames.

Stolen bases and sacrifice bunts — two tactics that add excitement and action — are down. With so many guys striking out and trying to hit the ball in the air, there are also fewer double plays.

You don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes or even his dimmer companion Doctor Watson to see a connection between the increasing influence of analytics and the decreasing interest of baseball fans.

And yet, nobody wants to get rid of analytics.

Spend time talking to old-school players, coaches and managers who hate where the game is going and you’ll still have a hard time finding anyone who wants to get rid of analytics altogether.

Those guys are in a tough racket, and if their analytics department has information that can help win a game, the old-school guys want it.

But then they also want the freedom to play the game as it unfolds.

As a former Royals coach once said, the numbers might reveal where a hitter tends to hit a baseball most of the time, but it makes a difference whether Bruce Chen or Kelvin Herrera is pitching that night.

If a bunt gives you the best chance of winning that night, bunt. If circumstances allow you to steal a base that night, steal it.

If opposing teams are going to put lousy defenders on the field because those lousy defenders walk and hit home runs, be aggressive and make those lousy defenders play the parts of the game they don’t play well.

The numbers tell you what happened in the past, but you have to adjust to what’s happening right now ... and what’s happening right now changes all the time.

And it better.

Because what’s happening right now is baseball is becoming more and more boring and fewer and fewer fans want to watch it.

And that’s the fourth true outcome.

This story was originally published May 6, 2019 at 3:24 PM.