Who’s the fastest Royals player? It depends on how you measure speed

Over the winter, The Star posted a story about Terrance Gore and whether or not he’s the fastest player on the Royals.

These days the Royals have plenty of candidates for that title: Gore, Billy Hamilton, Adalberto Mondesi and last year’s stolen base champion, Whit Merrifield immediately come to mind.

The story on Gore quoted Statcast, and apparently last season Hamilton had the fifth-fastest sprint speed in the big leagues while Mondesi was 11th. So, case closed: Now that we have Statcast, we know which player is fastest, right?

Not so fast (I threw that joke in for free because that’s about what it’s worth).

People like numbers because they seem definitive and clear: 10 is more than nine, and nothing will change that. But when you look at how the numbers are put together, you almost always find gray areas. And measuring speed is no exception.

When measuring sprint speed, Statcast uses a player’s fastest one-second window while he’s on the run, and that can be misleading.

Royals coach Rusty Kuntz once said that if former Royals Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando were to race from first to second, Dyson would win. But if they raced from first base to home plate, Orlando would win.

At 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds, Dyson had a more explosive start than Orlando, who goes 6-2, 215. Dyson reached full speed in two steps; it took Orlando longer to get going, but once he did, Kuntz thought Orlando’s longer strides would make a difference.

If Dyson and Orlando ran from first base to home and Orlando touched the plate first, would you conclude that Dyson was still the faster runner because he had a superior one-second window? Which player is “faster” depends on how long the race is.

Usain Bolt would get his butt kicked in a marathon.

How about turns?

Every baseball team works on making good turns at the bases. Here are the fundamentals:

For starters, the runner wants to make his turn before he reaches the base.

The runner aims at a point to the right of the base, makes his left turn and then touches the inside corner of the base on his way to the next base. That small turn before touching the initial base gets him lined up for the most efficient route to the next one.

Wait to make the turn until after he touches a base and the runner will make a big looping turn that carries him too far toward the outfield grass.

If Player A has better sprint speed than Player B, but Player B makes more efficient turns, Player B could beat Player A around the bases.

So who’s faster?

First steps

Look up the Statcast numbers on Hamilton and you’ll see they also measure first step: the time between bat-on-ball contact and the fielder making his first move toward the base.

On one play, Hamilton’s first step time was -0.03, which means he was moving before making contact.

The defenders up the middle can see the catcher’s signs, and if they’re good at what they do, they’ll pass those signs along to their teammates defending the corners. Everybody — even the corner defenders — can see where the catcher sets up.

Once an experienced fielder knows what kind of pitch is coming — fastball or off-speed — where the catcher has set up and how well the pitcher locates, it’s possible to make an educated guess about where the ball will be hit and start moving in that direction as the pitch is delivered.

So, once again, the slower Player B who moves before contact might get to a ball more quickly than the faster Player A who waits for the ball to be hit.

Route efficiency

The route efficiency metric assumes the best route to a ball is a straight line, which tells you the guys who dreamed up this stat haven’t spent much time in the outfield.

On many if not most plays the best route to a ball is curved. If there’s a throw to be made after fielding a ball, outfielders want to make the play while headed back toward the infield — and that often requires a curved route.

Runners are told to take the next base if the outfielder is headed away from the infield (which makes for a weak throw) and stay put if the outfielder is headed toward the infield (which makes for a strong throw).

Veteran Royals outfielder Alex Gordon does not turn doubles into singles by running straight routes.

Next time a ball is hit between Gordon and the foul line, watch his route. Whenever possible, he’ll loop around the ball and field it while headed back toward second base, because that encourages base runners to be happy with a single.

So Player A could have better sprint speed and route efficiency numbers and still be a worse outfielder than Player B because Player B runs better routes.

Slides make a difference

Slow runners “lawn dart” — hit the ground and stick — while fast runners keep sliding, especially when the ground is hard and dry in the later innings of a day game.

Fast runners are like jets landing on aircraft carriers: They use the base to slow themselves down. If the runner uses a head-first slide, he’ll try to grab the base with his hands as he goes past; if he goes in feet first, he might hit the bag firmly and use a pop-up slide to decelerate.

Once again, Player A — the guy with better sprint speed — might get beat to the bag by the slower Player B if Player B is a more accomplished player and can wait longer before starting his slide.

Clearly, there are two lessons here:

Sprint speed measured in a one-second window does not necessarily tell you which player would be faster running the bases or getting to a fly ball. It’s not that simple.

Lesson two?

The Royals should sign Player B.