The Royals know they are fast. Here’s how they plan to turn speed into runs
The Royals may have constructed the fastest roster in Major League Baseball, but that alone isn’t enough to create runs. The famous Jarrod Dyson comment “that’s what speed do” can be somewhat misleading.
Speed alone doesn’t do anything. It’s up to players to create opportunities and execute in critical situations for speed to become a formidable weapon. How well the Royals maximize their speed to wreak havoc offensively will play a major part in their success or lack thereof this season.
“We know we’ve got speed,” second baseman Whit Merrifield said. “Now, we’ve gotta get better at other areas. We’ve gotta work on getting on base. We’ve got to work on situational hitting.”
Merrifield led the American League with 34 stolen bases in 2017, and he led the majors with 45 this past season. Adalberto Mondesi stole 32 bases in 75 games for the Royals last season.
This offseason, the club signed speedster Billy Hamilton, who has stolen 277 bases in six big-league seasons. They also reacquired outfielder Terrance Gore, who stole 20 bases or more seven times in the minors.
“We’re a team built on speed and athleticism, but speed ain’t worth a damn if you can’t get on base,” Royals manager Ned Yost said. “Approach at the plate is going to have to be a big part of our focus this spring, approach, two-strike approach, winning the 3-2 count, the real importance of getting on base. A real mindset of, when you walk up to the plate, your goal is to score a run.”
“That used to be the focus of offenses. Then it got to where now the focus is power, swing for the fences, don’t worry about the shift and see what happens. That’s not who we are. That’s not the type of team that we’ve built. That’s not the strategy that we can use to be successful.”
The Royals ranked 24th out of 30 teams in on-base percentage last season. They were 11th in the American League in batting average with runners in scoring position (.244) and 13th in on-base percentage with runners in scoring position (.316)
If the speedsters are able to get on base and put the ball in play, overwhelmed and rushed defenses can be forced into mistakes.
Those mistakes can result in scoring chances for a team that can’t rely on home runs in the cavernous Kauffman Stadium, especially with the losses of Mike Moustakas to free agency and Salvador Perez to injury. That duo accounted for 30 percent of the teams homers last season (47 of 155).
That’s why the stolen base figures into the equation so heavily for the Royals this season. Without the ability to smack the ball out of the park with regularity, they’ll have to be creative and aggressive to put men in position to score. As Yost alluded to, that’s gone from a core principle in the game to an old-school approach.
Back in 1914, major-league teams stole 4,575 bases. It wasn’t just part of the game in a big-picture sense. The stolen base was part of every game (2.43 per game).
It was still a weapon in 1987 when 3,585 steals were logged in the majors (1.70 per game). But by 2014, stolen base totals were down to 2,764 (1.14 per game). Last season, there were an average of just 1.02 stolen bases per game.
No individual player has stolen 100 bases in more than three decades (Vince Coleman’s 109 in 1987). Nobody has even reached 70 steals since 2009 (Jacoby Ellsbury’s 70).
“I believe as analytics kind of becomes more homogenized among everybody, the benefits are going to be blurred out a little bit, so you’re going to look for an edge — possibly by just going the old route,” Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon said. “Whether stealing a base or situational hitting, a bunt, they might become more popular again. The more traditional method become more popular as everybody is working from the same sheet of music.”
Maddon believes in the stolen base as a valuable weapon when used efficiently. If your success rate is 80 percent or better, Maddon believes that can be beneficial. Start to get below 75 or 70 percent, and it looks more like running into outs in Maddon’s eyes.
The Angels (80.18 percent) and Red Sox (80.12 percent) were the only teams with an 80 percent or better success rate last season. By comparison, the Royals were successful at a 75 percent clip. Merrifield got caught just 10 times while stealing 45 bases (81 percent).
“You’ve got to pick the right spots,” Maddon said. “With all the clocks and all the information available, you know each guy. Some guys are situationally good. Some guys are just fast and can beat anybody. I know I don’t like it as much when we’re facing teams that can do that against us. I also know that in the playoffs the last couple years, we’ve had at least one speed guy. When we had Terrance Gore, that was incredibly beneficial to us.”
Just the fear of the speed on the basepaths can put pressure on a defense, but it is a difficult thing to quantify what that means for a team. Catchers must be on alert for the stolen base. Pitchers must make an effort to hold runners.
When the ball is put in play, there’s another dimension. A fast runner or multiple fast runners can cause defenders to get overwhelmed and make a number of miscues from ill-considered decisions on where to go with the ball or errant throws because they were worried they running short on time.
“The one thing you know going in,” Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona said. “When it’s hit, the ball better end up where it is supposed to or they’re going to run you into some problems.
“Now hopefully with that youth, maybe they run themselves into some mistakes. But they’re aggressive, and you know that going in. The ball better end up where it’s supposed to or they’re going around the bases like crazy.”
