Revisiting the ‘James Shields-Wil Myers trade’ five years later

Many Royals fans were furious five years ago Saturday.

The 2012 Winter Meetings had concluded a few days earlier and rumors were circulating that the Royals were poised to trade baseball’s top prospect — Wil Myers — to the Rays for veteran pitcher James Shields.

Myers was a can’t-miss prospect and fans wondered if the Royals were giving away what one day would be their best player for rotation help that could have been found in the free-agent market. Besides, the thinking went, Jeff Francoeur couldn’t be counted on to play right field again in 2013 for the Royals.*

*Turns out, Francoeur lost his job to rookie David Lough, who hit .286 that season

A refresher on the trade, which was completed on Dec. 9, 2012: The Rays received outfielder Myers, pitchers Jake Odorrizi and Mike Montgomery and minor leaguer Patrick Leonard. The Royals got Shields, pitcher Wade Davis and a player to be named (it would be Elliot Johnson).

The Rays were coming off a 90-win season in 2012, but they had missed the playoffs. The Royals, with Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer in their first full seasons, finished 72-90.

Royals general manager Dayton Moore later said he made the trade because it was time for the team’s young core to start winning games. Building for the future was over. The pitching staff needed an ace, and Moore thought he had it in Shields, who had 81 victories in his previous six seasons.

Moore was criticized for the deal, particularly because Myers was under team control for at least six years, while Shields’ contract guaranteed he’d only be with the Royals for two seasons.

A Yahoo story had the headline “Eight reasons why the Wil Myers-James Shields trade is a bad one for Kansas City.” A FanGraphs post trumpeted: “Royals mortgage future to be mediocre in 2013.”

Two other stories, in particular, capture the mood well.

Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus evaluated the trade for Deadspin and offered an insight that resonates today.

“This trade makes them (the Royals) more likely to reach the playoffs next season and possibly in 2014, too, depending on how quickly Myers comes into his own, but it seemingly lowers their ceiling in 2015 and beyond, even with Davis signed through 2017. The Royals won the prospect lotto, but instead of opting for the annual annuity that could have kept them in contention as regularly as the Rays, they chose to receive the lump sum and splurge. Even when they aimed high, they set their sights low.

“What the Myers trade seems to suggest is that the Royals are counting on their competitive window to close ...”

As it turns out, the Royals broke through the ceiling with the World Series title in 2015. However, we’ve reached the end of 2017 and the Royals are planning for the possibility that their window is shut for the foreseeable future as a core group of players, led by Hosmer and Moustakas, tests free-agency.

Meanwhile, the Rays’ expected boon never materialized as they have failed to reach the .500 mark the past four seasons.

Rany Jazayerli assessed the trade for the now-departed Grantland and said it rivaled the awful Mark Teixeira deal made by the Atlanta Braves in 2007.

“This is a terrible trade for the Royals, deeply flawed in both its theory and execution, and while it might make the Royals marginally more likely to make the playoffs in 2013, it does irreparable damage to their chances of building a perennial winner,” Jazayerli wrote.

You can debate whether the Royals were a perennial winner after the trade, but they won 86 games in 2013, claimed the AL pennant a season later and were crowned World Series champions less than three years after the trade was made.

The Royals won 80 or more games in five straight seasons (2013-17) for the first time since 1976-80. While a rebuilding project appears imminent and sooner than fans would have liked, the trade seemed to accelerate the Royals’ winning ways. It’s impossible to know if that would have been the case if the team had kept Myers.

Moore downplays talk about one team winning a trade. He likes to think a deal can benefit both sides, but the Royals’ fortunes clearly turned after this blockbuster.

Here are the teams’ records since the trade (*made playoffs):

2013: Rays 92-71*, Royals 86-76

2014: Rays 77-85, Royals 89-73*

2015: Rays 80-82, Royals 95-67*

2016: Rays 68-94, Royals 81-81

2017: Rays 80-82, Royals 80-82

Here is what happened to the players after the trade:

James Shields

The Royals knew that Shields’ contract would expire after two seasons, and he was solid performer during his time in Kansas City. He was 27-17 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.209 WHIP and 376 strikeouts in 455 2/3 innings. He led the league in starts both seasons (34 each year). He finished 11th in Cy Young voting in 2013 and was 18th in MVP voting the next year.

Shields started five games in the 2014 postseason, including the Wild Card Game against the A’s.

After the 2014 season, Shields signed a free-agent deal with the Padres and was traded to the White Sox during the 2016 season.

Wade Davis

After making 24 starts for the Royals in 2013, Davis was sent to the bullpen in August and, well, no one could have expected the astonishing results.

Davis finished 2013 with an 0.90 ERA (one earned run allowed in 10 innings) in seven appearances. The following season, Davis had a 1.00 ERA with 109 strikeouts in 72 innings, and he finished eighth in Cy Young voting.

In 2015, Davis took over the closer’s role after Greg Holland’s injury in the summer and had an 0.94 ERA with 17 saves. Davis was sixth in Cy Young voting, received an MVP vote, made the first of three straight All-Star Game appearances and closed out the 2015 World Series for the Royals.

When the trade was announced, it was known as the “Wil Myers trade,” the “James Shields trade” or some combination. By 2015, it was known as the “Wade Davis trade,” because of his brilliance.

After the 2016 season, the Royals traded him to the Cubs for Jorge Soler in what Kansas City fans call “The $#@$% Trade,” but that’s another story.

Wil Myers

As expected, Myers made his big-league debut in 2013 with the Rays and hit .293 with 13 homers and 23 doubles in 373 plate appearances. He won the Rookie of the Year award. Then came the unexpected: a sophomore slump followed by a trade to the Padres before the 2015 season.

What irked so many Royals fans about the trade in 2013 was the team was giving up long-term club control of Myers, but then the Rays traded him after two seasons. While not a superstar, he has found his stride the last two seasons in San Diego.

Myers has averaged 29 homers and 29 doubles in each of the last two seasons with the Padres and he was an All-Star at first base in 2016. Earlier this year, Myers signed a six-year, $83 million contract extension that will keep him in San Diego through 2022.

In an odd twist, Myers and Shields were Padres teammates for a season and a half.

Jake Odorizzi

After making a pair of starts for the Royals in 2012, Odorizzi appeared in seven games the following season with the Rays. Since 2014, he has been a main member of Tampa Bay’s rotation.

Odorizzi has made 120 starts and has a 40-36 record with a 3.81 ERA, 617 strikeouts and 220 walks in 668 1/3 innings over the past four seasons with the Rays. Not great numbers, but he’s been a dependable starter.

Mike Montgomery

Once seen as being part of the wave of prospects who could reverse the Royals’ fortunes, Montgomery never got that chance. Nor did he pitch for the Rays. They traded Montgomery to the Mariners ahead of the 2015 season, and he made 16 starts for Seattle and had a 4.60 ERA with two shutouts, which tied for the league most.

In 2016, Montgomery mostly pitched out of the bullpen for the Mariners, who traded him to the Cubs midseason and he won the World Series that fall. In fact, Montgomery was on the mound when Chicago closed out the series and he got the save in Game 7.

Elliot Johnson

Johnson batted .179 in 173 plate appearances for the Royals, and he played second base, shortstop, third base, left field and right field. After the Royals released Johnson in August 2013, he signed the Braves and appeared in the divisional series against the Dodgers. The following season, Johnson played a handful of games with the Indians before his career came to an end.

Patrick Leonard

More than five years after the trade, Leonard is someone who could still help the Rays. Leonard had just completed Rookie League play when the Royals traded him. He’s slowly made his way up the minors for the Rays, and he was a Class AAA All-Star for Durham last season. Leonard hit .268 with 32 doubles, 12 homers and 70 RBIs in 131 games in 2017. Originally a third baseman, Leonard has also played first base, shortstop, left field and right field in the minors.

This story was originally published December 9, 2017 at 9:43 AM with the headline "Revisiting the ‘James Shields-Wil Myers trade’ five years later."