A look at what’s ahead in AL wild-card race

This week’s breakdown of the American League wild-card race will focus on math.

The Twins, who currently hold the second wild-card spot, are on pace for 84.5 wins this season, so let’s bump that up to 85. A lot can happen in the final four weeks of the season, but if we use 85 wins as the goal for the Royals making the playoffs, they will have to go 18-9 to finish the season.

That doesn’t guarantee that the Royals would be on the only team to get to that number, and FanGraphs says there is an 18 percent chance of a two-way tie for the second wild-card spot.

In their last 27 games, the Royals have won 11 times. They have shown an ability to pile up the victories (as we saw in June and July), and now would be a good time for the Royals to start.

Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds give the Royals the worst chance in the American League, other than a team that has a zero percent shot.

FanGraphs is a little kinder to the Royals, giving them a better chance of making the playoffs than the Mariners, Rangers and Rays. However, the Royals’ playoff chances in FanGraphs’ standings have steadily dropped over the past four weeks (26.9 percent to 22.0 percent to 16.7 percent to 9.5 percent).

Here are the wild-card standings from MLB.com:

Here is a look at the week ahead in the wild-card race:

Yankees 73-63

This week’s games: 3 at Orioles, 3 at Rangers

Last week: 3-4 (0-3 vs. Indians; 3-1 vs. Red Sox)

Season run differential: Plus-137 (704-567)

Playoff chances: 94.0 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 86.0 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 97.0 percent/89.3 percent

Two weeks ago: 91.7 percent/76.0 percent

Twins 71-65

This week’s games: 3 at Rays, 4 at Royals

Last week: 4-2 (3-0 vs. White Sox; 1-2 vs. Royals)

Season run differential: 0 (673-673)

Playoff chances: 46.9 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 42.0 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 38.9 percent/31.2 percent

Two weeks ago: 33.4 percent/32.1 percent

Orioles 70-67

This week’s games: 3 vs. Yankees, 3 at Indians

Last week: 5-2 (3-0 vs. Mariners; 2-2 vs. Blue Jays)

Season run differential: Minus-23 (668-691)

Playoff chances: 10.9 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 12.7 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 7.6 percent/8.6 percent

Two weeks ago: 1.9 percent/2.4 percent

Angels 70-67

This week’s games: 3 at A’s; 3 at Mariners

Last week: 4-2 (3-0 vs. A’s; 1-2 vs. Rangers)

Season run differential: Plus-9 (606-597)

Playoff chances: 18.7 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 28.4 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 13.8 percent/20.6 percent

Two weeks ago: 26.1 percent/33.3 percent

Mariners 69-68

This week’s games: 3 vs. Astros, 3 vs. Angels

Last week: 3-3 (0-3 vs. Orioles; 3-0 vs. A’s)

Season run differential: Minus-19 (640-659)

Playoff chances: 8.4 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 8.7 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 14.8 percent/15.1 percent

Two weeks ago: 14.1 percent/15.2 percent

Rangers 68-68

This week’s games: 3 at Braves, 3 vs. Yankees

Last week: 4-2 (2-1 vs. Astros; 2-1 vs. Angels)

Season run differential: Plus-33 (693-660)

Playoff chances: 10.9 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 6.6 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 7.9 percent/5.4 percent

Two weeks ago: 12.4 percent/11.0 percent

Royals 67-68

This week’s games: 3 at Tigers, 4 vs. Twins

Last week: 3-3 (1-2 vs. Rays; 2-1 vs. Twins)

Season run differential: Minus-71 (581-652)

Playoff chances: 4.8 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 9.5 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 10.2 percent/16.7 percent

Two weeks ago: 15.0 percent/22.0 percent

Rays 68-70

This week’s games: 3 vs. Twins, 3 at Red Sox

Last week: 3-3 (2-1 vs. Royals; 1-2 vs. White Sox)

Season run differential: Minus-4 (594-598)

Playoff chances: 5.7 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 6.3 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 11.0 percent/12.9 percent

Two weeks ago: 5.4 percent/5.8 percent

This story was originally published September 4, 2017 at 11:14 AM with the headline "A look at what’s ahead in AL wild-card race."