Royals have worst run differential of any team in AL wild-card race

There was a bit of separation in the wild-card race last week.

The Toronto Blue Jays went 2-4 and dropped to six games back in the race. That may not seem like an insurmontable gap, but Toronto’s playoff odds dropped below 1 percent in both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, so the Blue Jays are not part of this week’s wild-card lookahead.

There are still eight teams in the running for the two wild-card spots, and who can say what will happen? FanGraphs says there is a 17.7 percent chance that there will be a two-way tie for the second wild-card spot, a 3.7 percent chance of a three-way tie and a 0.6 percent chance of a four-way tie.

Craziness.

Here are the wild-card standings from MLB.com:

The Royals are coming off a dreadful weekend in which they were swept by the Indians by a cumulative score of 20-0. Of the eight teams in the running for the two playoff spots, the Royals have the worst run differential (minus-46).

The good news is that the Royals’ playoff chances aren’t terrible despite the team’s 9-16 record in August. This week could be pivotal as the Royals play six games against teams they are battling in the wild-card race (Rays and Twins).

This is a look at the wild-card race heading into the final full month of the regular season.

Yankees 70-59

This week’s games: 3 vs. Indians, 4 vs. Red Sox

Last week: 4-2 (2-1 vs. Tigers; 2-1 vs. Mariners)

Season run differential: Plus-135 (676-541)

Playoff chances: 97.0 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 89.3 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 91.7 percent/76.0 percent

Two weeks ago: 84.3 percent/65.4 percent

Twins 67-63

This week’s games: 3 vs. White Sox, 3 vs. Royals

Last week: 4-4 (2-3 vs. White Sox; 2-1 vs. Blue Jays)

Season run differential: Minus-28 (624-652)

Playoff chances: 38.9 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 31.2 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 33.4 percent/32.1 percent

Two weeks ago: 24.0 percent/22.2 percent

Angels 66-65

This week’s games: 3 vs. A’s, 3 at Rangers

Last week: 2-5 (1-4 vs. Rangers; 1-2 vs. Astros)

Season run differential: Minus-2 (563-565)

Playoff chances: 13.8 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 20.6 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 26.1 percent/33.3 percent

Two weeks ago: 22.4 percent/32.4 percent

Mariners 66-65

This week’s games: 3 at Braves; 3 at Yankees

Last week: 3-3 (2-1 vs. Braves; 1-2 vs. Yankees)

Season run differential: Minus-12 (607-630)

Playoff chances: 14.8 percent (Baseball Prospectus);15.1 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 14.1 percent/15.2 percent

Two weeks ago: 13.0 percent/12.0 percent

Orioles 65-65

This week’s games: 3 vs. Mariners, 4 vs. Blue Jays

Last week: 5-1 (2-1 vs. A’s; 3-0 vs. Red Sox)

Season run differential: Minus-23 (633-656)

Playoff chances: 7.6 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 8.6 percent (Fan Graphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 1.9 percent/2.4 percent

Two weeks ago: 6.9 percent/7.8 percent

Royals 64-65

This week’s games: 3 vs. Rays, 3 at Twins

Last week: 2-4 (2-1 vs. Rockies; 0-3 vs. Indians)

Season run differential: Minus-46 (560-606)

Playoff chances: 10.2 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 16.7 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 15.0 percent/22.0 percent

Two weeks ago: 18.1 percent/26.2 percent

Rays 65-67

This week’s games: 3 at Royals, 3 at White Sox

Last week: 4-2 (2-1 vs. Blue Jays; 2-1 vs. Cardinals)

Season run differential: Minus-11 (566-577)

Playoff chances: 11.0 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 12.9 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 5.4 percent/5.8 percent

Two weeks ago: 22.8 percent/20.7 percent

Rangers 64-66

This week’s games: 3 at Astros, 3 vs. Angels

Last week: 3-4 (3-1 vs. Angels; 0-3 vs. A’s)

Season run differential: Plus-21 (651-630)

Playoff chances: 7.9 percent (Baseball Prospectus); 5.4 percent (FanGraphs)

Last week’s playoff chances: 12.4 percent/11.0 percent

Two weeks ago: 9.3 percent/8.2 percent

This story was originally published August 28, 2017 at 11:00 AM with the headline "Royals have worst run differential of any team in AL wild-card race."