Who’s coming to KC for World Cup Round-of-32 match? What the projections say
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Portugal has a 55% chance to play in Kansas City per The Athletic.
- Colombia has a 45% chance to play in Kansas City per The Athletic.
- BBC forecasts Colombia vs. Croatia and Fox Sports and SI predict Portugal vs. Ghana.
World Cup teams will begin playing their third and final group stage matches on Wednesday, and it will wrap up Saturday with the Austria-Algeria match in Kansas City.
When that game ends, we will know what the bracket looks like for the Round of 32. The final match in that round also will be at Kansas City Stadium (aka Arrowhead). It’ll be played on July 3, and we know that the winner from Group K will take on a third-place team from Group D, E, I, J or L.
Although there are more games to be played, we have an idea of which teams could be coming to Kansas City for the Round of 32 match. Here is a closer look
Group K
Columbia, with star Luis Diaz, leads Group K with six points, while Portugal and Ronaldo are second with four points. They face each other on Saturday night. Portugal can win the group with a victory and book a spot at Arrowhead. If Colombia wins or ties, it will be winners and play in Kansas City.
The Athletic’s bracket projection gives Portugal a 55% chance of playing in Kansas City, with Colombia at 45%.
Third-place team
Here is how things stand with third-place teams going into the final games.
Group D: Paraguay is in third now, but plays Australia and could move into second in the group. That would push Australia into third place.
Group E: Ecuador. Despite the visceral reaction of their fans after Saturday’s match in KC, Ecuador can still move to the knockout stage with a win over Germany. Curaçao also has a chance to jump into third with a tie against the Ivory Coast. If Curaçao beats Ivory Coast, the “Elephants” could finish third in the group.
Group I: Senegal. Although they have zero points, Senegal and Iraq face each other this week. The winner of the match would get to three points and have a chance to advance. But Iraq’s negative-six goal differential could be tough to overcome.
Group J: Algeria. The loser of Saturday’s match in Kansas City will finish third in this group. That could be Austria or Algeria, and the latter could play a third match at Arrowhead Stadium.
Group L: Croatia. Strawberry Hill would go crazy for this. Croatia is in third place in the group, but faces Ghana later this week. Ghana would win the group, finish second or end up third and play in KC. The Athletic currently gives Ghana a 57% chance of playing in that Round of 32 match at Arrowhead. Croatia has a 38% chance.
The projections
There is no shortage of projections about the match in Kansas City. Here are five.
Fox Sports sees a Portugal vs. Ghana game at Arrowhead.
The BBC has Colombia vs. Croatia in KC for the Round of 32.
USA Today is projecting a Croatia-Portugal matchup.
Football Meets Data sees an Ecuador-Portugal match.
Sports Illustrated is forecasting Ghana vs. Portugal in KC.
This story was originally published June 24, 2026 at 9:32 AM.
