Which team wins the World Cup? How far can USA advance? Here are our predictions
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Two staff picks favor Spain to win 2026 World Cup; France, Argentina mentioned.
- All four writers expect the United States to reach the knockout stage.
- Lamine Yamal is widely projected as a breakout or decisive tournament player.
The wait is almost over.
After years of buildup, the 2026 FIFA World Cup officially begins Thursday when Mexico takes on South Africa in the inaugural match of the event. Thus begins a glorious six weeks of soccer that fans can enjoy across the globe, from Kansas City to Tokyo and anywhere in between.
But before the games start, let’s share some predictions on how the tournament will unfold.
Which nation will win it all? What are reasonable expectations for Team USA? And what match will entertain us most at Arrowhead (now Kansas City Stadium)?
Some of the soccer enthusiasts on our sports staff have agreed to share their picks ahead of the World Cup.
Here’s how Pete Grathoff, Blair Kerkhoff, Kellis Robinett and Scott Chasen see the tournament unfolding:
Which nation will win the World Cup?
Pete Grathoff: Argentina. Kansas City could feel part of this title. Argentina is making its base camp here, plays its first match at Kansas City Stadium and could have a knockout game here. Only Italy (1934 and 1938) and Brazil (1958 and 1962) have repeated as champions. Should Argentina defend its title, Lionel Messi will go down as the greatest soccer player ever.
Blair Kerkhoff: Spain. A team with no weaknesses, a group stage draw that shouldn’t create many problems, and disappointing finishes since winning the World Cup in 2010. Spain pushes back this year.
Kellis Robinett: Given the location of this tournament, it’s tempting to pick a team like Argentina or Brazil to raise the trophy. It’s certainly easier for teams from this side of the world to adapt to the climate and time zones of North America than it is for teams that have traveled from across the Atlantic Ocean. Still, my pick is Spain. Behind Lamine Yamal, it won the Euros in dominating fashion two years ago. The team has only matured since then.
Scott Chasen: Well, I’d like to make it three in a row by picking Spain (the FIFA World No 2, by the way), but there are two other countries I think are primed for a deep, deep run at this World Cup. England, by my estimation, landed in a tougher than normal group, especially given the size of this World Cup field, but the squad has ridiculous talent and is due for a major run given some recent disappointments. And how could you not love what France offers in the attack? Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise could carry France, and I’ll make them my pick.
Which player will emerge as the star of this World Cup?
Grathoff: Colombia’s Luis Diaz. He was the second-leading scorer in South American World Cup qualifying behind Messi. Diaz also scored 15 goals for Bayern Munich this past season. Colombia’s first two games are against relative minnows (Uzbekistan and Congo) and he could emerge as a star.
Kerkhoff: Let’s stay with my World Cup winner and say Lamine Yamal. He’s recovering from a hamstring injury but should be fit by the knockout rounds.
Robinett: Lamine Yamal. Even though his injury status is a bit of a concern, he is expected to be at full strength for most of this tournament. If that turns out to be the case, I expect the young Spaniard to win a few games for his country all by himself with highlight goals and passes.
Chasen: Lamine Yamal is already one of the best players in the world, and I’ve mentioned two of the French attackers above. If emerging star is the key, then we’ll cross guys like Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and so many others off the list. This has the greatest chance to be Yamal’s tournament, but if not, I’d bet on guys like Michael Olise (France) or Joao Neves (Portugal) to become key fixtures stateside.
Who will be the surprise team of this tournament?
Grathoff: Japan. In the last 12 months, Japan has won friendlies at Brazil and England. They have a talented trio at forward (Ayase Ueda, Ritsu Doan and Takefusa Kubo) and could go beyond the Round of 16 for the first time ever at the World Cup.
Kerkhoff: Ecuador. A team that played Netherlands and Morocco to 1-1 draws earlier this year and finished second in South American qualifying (ahead of Brazil). Kansas City will get the close-up on June 20, when Ecuador meets Curacao.
Robinett: Mexico. No host country will benefit more from playing on home soil than El Tri. Good luck to any team that has to try and beat them at extreme altitude inside Estadio Azteca with a passionate fan base cheering them on. That home-field advantage will help an average Mexico roster punch above its weight class and advance deep on the bracket.
Chasen: It seems like Norway has the talent to go on a run, even with France in its initial group. Remember, with 32 teams advancing, three or four points may be enough to reach the knockout stage. Eight third-place group finishers will advance in the most forgiving format in World Cup history. Honorable mention to Portugal, which should be a serious contender to win its first ever World Cup.
Which team could disappoint?
Grathoff: Croatia has made the semifinals in the last two World Cups, but probably doesn’t have the legs to make it that far this time around.
Kerkhoff: Brazil. The New York Yankees or Dallas Cowboys of soccer. Incredible history, many championships. But more of a 20th century power. Since winning in 2002, Brazil has fallen in the quarterfinals in four of the past five World Cups.
Robinett: Norway. Even though they have one of the most exciting players in the world (Erling Haaland) and an excellent secondary playmaker (Martin Odegaard), it’s hard for me to see Norway living up to increased expectations. This is a team that hasn’t played in a World Cup since 1998. I also suspect the summer heat will be a problem for a team that hails from Northern Europe.
Chasen: Brazil. There have been a few teams hit hard by recent injuries, and if we’re picking from the top-ranked teams in the world, I wouldn’t be betting on a deep Brazil run. The Netherlands will also be missing a couple talented players, and depending on your expectations for the United States, they might be another to mention here.
What are your expectations for the USMNT?
Grathoff: Their group is tougher than many might suspect, but playing at home should get Team USA to the knockout stages and possibly a win in the Round of 32 if there is a favorable matchup.
Kerkhoff: Get the home nation boost and win the closely matched group. Then beat a third-place team in the round-of-32, and fall in the round of 16. This would be a good showing for the red, white and blue.
Robinett: I wish I could predict a deep run for the Yanks. It would mean a great deal for soccer in this country if Team USA could win its group and then advance on the bracket. But I’m not expecting a memorable showing. There simply isn’t enough talent on this roster to compete with the best teams in the world. The USMNT will reach the knockout rounds but quickly falter.
Chasen: If we’re being realistic about what a successful World Cup means, in an expanded field, that looks like winning the group and winning at least one knockout-stage game — possibly two. A quarterfinal on American soil would be massive. However, my expectations are lower. I expect the U.S. to get out of its group, and then be incredibly matchup-dependent from there, including a possible one-and-done scenario in the knockouts.
Which Kansas City match are you most looking forward to watch?
Grathoff: In the group stage, it’s the first game: Argentina vs. Algeria. Messi and Co. are the defending champions but could get a challenge from Algeria. But the most anticipated game is the quarterfinal. That’s going to be a massive match, especially if it’s Portugal vs. Argentina.
Kerkhoff: Netherlands-Tunisia on June 25, just to see the pageantry of the Oranje Army march from KC Power & Light to Fan Fest.
Robinett: Let’s hope the knockout games at Kansas City Stadium are bangers. But without knowing which teams will play in those matches, I’m going to focus on the group stage. Argentina vs. Algeria is clearly the headliner. Watching Lionel Messi and the defending World Cup champions play their first match of the tournament seems like a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for most in attendance.
Chasen: We’ve learned very quickly how much Algeria’s team means to some in the area. If there’s a chance the final group-stage game, Algeria vs. Austria (June 27), is a meaningful one, that could end up being a great environment — especially if it’s significantly more affordable than the opener. That said, Game 1, also featuring Algeria but also Argentina, is the clear pick for me.
Which Kansas City team will advance the furthest in the World Cup bracket?
Grathoff: Argentina. They rolled through qualifying and Messi appears to be fully healthy. A return to the finals is not out of the question.
Kerkhoff: Argentina. Duh. They have experience, talent and know what it takes to win it all. But there hasn’t been a World Cup repeat winner since 1962
Robinett: Netherlands. The Dutch don’t always qualify for the World Cup, but when they do, they are hard to eliminate. The orange-clad team reached the quarterfinals in 2022, took third in 2014 and finished second in 2010. They are still one of the top-10 teams in the world. Outlasting Argentina and England won’t be easy. But why can’t they go on another run?
Chasen: Argentina. I’m resisting the urge to be a huge downer here and say I believe both the Netherlands and Argentina could underwhelm in this tournament. Even so, if Cristian Romero can get healthy, the Argentina starting IX is world-class, and their group is more forgiving than most. If we expand to base camps, however, then give me England.