Selection Sunday to decide Mizzou basketball's NCAA Tournament fate
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- Mizzou 20-12 with nine Quad 1-2 wins; expected in NCAAs but not guaranteed.
- Conference tournament upsets could push Mizzou closer to Dayton.
- Overall résumé quality (many league wins) will affect first-four fate.
Five months and 32 games of what has been a season of highs and lows for Mizzou men's basketball all comes down to the decision of the selection committee when the final bracket for the 2026 NCAA Tournament is revealed Sunday.
With a 20-12 record and a combined nine Quad 1 and 2 wins, the Tigers should be in the field. However, with potential bid stealers and Mizzou's run of three consecutive losses heading into the Big Dance, a question remains about where the Tigers will be seeded.
Will there be a bye or will Mizzou be sentenced to a first-four game in Dayton, Ohio? Here is where the Tigers stand heading into Sunday.
Chaos in the Atlantic 10
Mizzou's neighbor to the east St. Louis University is in the midst of a historic season. The Billikens earned the No. 1 seed in the A10 Tournament and were poised for a regular-season, conference tournament championship double.
That all came crashing down Saturday afternoon when Dayton upset SLU in the dying seconds of the semifinal. The possibility of a two-bid A-10 directly impacts where Mizzou will find itself in the tournament field.
As of Saturday, No. 2 seeded VCU is in 118 of 121 tournament brackets. The Rams have been consistently living on the last four in line, but now according to ESPN's latest projections, they have moved into the tournament field, earning a bye.
Regardless of who emerges as A-10 champion, the league will receive two bids minimum. A scenario does exist where Dayton wins and the league is granted three bids. Under this circumstance, Mizzou will be pushed in the direction of the first four.
Crisis averted in the SEC
With Mizzou's early departure from the SEC Tournament, it became paramount for the Tigers' interests that a bid stealer did not emerge.
Auburn has been a controversial topic in college basketball all season. The Tigers needed a run in the SEC Tournament to solidify their already precarious position on the bubble. They were defeated by Tennessee 72-62 in the second round on Tuesday. At 17 wins, it seems highly unlikely Auburn will hear its name called Sunday.
Oklahoma, who Mizzou lost to just 11 days ago, entered the conference tournament as the hottest team in the league. Arkansas took care of the Sooners 82-79 on Friday. Nineteen wins seem to have been enough to buy coach Porter Moser another year, but it will see Oklahoma fall short of a bid.
The last team vying for a bid steal was Ole Miss. The Rebels defeated Texas, Georgia and Alabama before finally bowing out against Arkansas on Saturday afternoon.
With Arkansas and Vanderbilt playing for the conference title, Mizzou is safe from dipping further below where it already stands in tournament projections.
The rest of the field
The final major threat for a bid steal could potentially come out of the Mountain West. At the moment, the lone bid belongs to No. 1 seed Utah State, but it is taking on San Diego State in the title game. The Aztecs are right on the outside looking in. A win by them and the Tigers will be pushed closer to Dayton.
With Miami (Ohio) losing in the first round of the Mid-American Conference Tournament, a unique situation has emerged. The once undefeated RedHawks (31-1) have been have had their status as a tournament team questioned all season. The committee will have to decide whether they are willing to have a two-bid MAC come selection Sunday.
Other teams surrounding Mizzou are SMU, UCF, Santa Clara, NC State and fellow SEC schools Texas and Texas A&M. All of these schools have already been eliminated from their respective conference tournaments.
The Tigers’ fate has yet to be decided, but it will come down to the strength of their résumé in comparison to others. The quality of their wins, most of which came in league play, can potentially hoist them out of a first-four spot. If not, it's off to Dayton for a chance to play themselves into the first round proper of the NCAA Tournament.
Copyright 2026 Columbia Missourian
This story was originally published March 15, 2026 at 12:09 PM with the headline "Selection Sunday to decide Mizzou basketball's NCAA Tournament fate."