How NCAA football changes could lead to more certainty in the NFL Draft process

For decades, the NFL Scouting Combine has been about projection. How fast a player might be. How much stronger he could get. How he might handle the jump from college to the professional game.

But as general managers and head coaches gathered in Indianapolis for the opening day of the 2026 combine, the conversation surrounding evaluation sounded different.

In an era shaped by name, image and likeness (NIL) deals, widespread use of the transfer portal and an increasingly older draft pool, NFL teams say they aren't struggling to adapt. In many ways, they believe the modern college football landscape has made the draft process clearer, not more complicated.

"We've got an older crop this year," Los Angeles Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz said. "When you see a 20-year-old or a 21-year-old now, you're like, ‘Wow, this guy is a baby.' That's just kind of the reality."

The 2026 draft class reflects that shift. Players are staying in school longer, transferring more often and entering the league with more experience — and, in many cases, more money — than ever before. For NFL evaluators, that has changed how prospects are viewed long before draft night.

Age no longer carries the same stigma

Age was once a quiet red flag in draft rooms. Older prospects were often viewed as players with lower ceilings, already closer to their developmental peak.

That thinking has evolved.

Hortiz said the COVID eligibility year and NIL opportunities have temporarily pushed the average age of draft prospects upward, but teams have adjusted their expectations accordingly.

"I think it'll level out a little bit going forward," Hortiz said. "But the whole class is older. (Beyond the draft) there's free agents who are 28 years old that can still get better."

Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said extended college careers have provided evaluators with more meaningful data.

"Now, they've got three years under their belt," Gutekunst said. "The numbers we've seen on our board in specific spots have been way higher. Especially with big guys and their ability to develop."

Instead of projecting what a player might become, teams increasingly feel comfortable evaluating what a player already is and how quickly he can contribute.

NIL provides insight, not concern

While NIL has reshaped college athletics financially, NFL teams say the money itself is not the issue. What matters is how players handle it.

Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio said NIL has given teams something they previously lacked: a glimpse into how prospects manage responsibility before reaching the league.

"What are they doing with that money?" Caserio said. "Does the guy have eight cars, or does he have a financial advisor and put it into an index fund because he's trying to grow his portfolio? It helps us understand their thought process."

Rather than worrying that early financial success could diminish motivation, Caserio said NIL often reveals maturity.

"You're seeing players who are 24, 25, 26 years old," Caserio said. "We don't care about worrying about the second contract. We say, ‘What's the player? What's his profile? Does he fit what we're trying to do?' "

For front offices, NIL has replaced speculation with evidence.

The transfer portal reframes adaptability

The modern prospect often arrives at the combine with multiple programs on his résumé, a trend that once raised concerns but is now seen as valuable context.

Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider said players who have transferred frequently are often better prepared for the non-football aspects of professional life.

"They've lived in Eugene, they've lived in College Station," Schneider said. "They're just more ready for the off-field experience. Not necessarily the football part, but the life part."

Exposure to different systems, coaching staffs and environments allows scouts to see how players respond to change. In many cases, it reduces projection rather than increasing it.

NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah has previously noted that conference realignment and player movement have also given scouts more chances to evaluate prospects against elite competition, helping teams gain clarity earlier in the process.

Mizzou offers a real-time case study

Missouri's presence at this year's combine reflects many of the trends NFL decision-makers discussed.

All six former Tigers invited to Indianapolis transferred at least once during their college careers, giving evaluators extended looks at how each handled new systems, coaching staffs and levels of competition.

Edge rusher Zion Young transferred from Michigan State before developing into one of the SEC's most productive defenders. Linebacker Josiah Trotter arrived from West Virginia and led Mizzou in tackles during his lone season in Columbia.

Defensive tackle Chris McClellan began his career at Florida before becoming a leader along Missouri's defensive front. Defensive back Toriano Pride Jr. transferred from Clemson and took a step forward during his final season with the Tigers.

Wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. followed one of the more winding paths in the draft class, transferring from Louisville to Mississippi State before emerging as MU's leading receiver. Offensive lineman Keagen Trost transferred from Morgan State to Indiana State to Wake Forest before finishing his career at Mizzou, where he earned All-American honors.

Rather than raising red flags, those varied paths give teams more information. Each stop offers insight into adaptability, development and response to change — qualities front offices increasingly value in a league defined by constant transition.

Interviews matter more than ever

With prospects entering the league older and more experienced, teams say combine interviews have taken on added importance.

Instead of focusing on terminology or recall, teams are looking for accountability, self-awareness and an understanding of personal development. Evaluators want to know why prospects made certain decisions and what they learned along the way.

The result is a draft process that feels less speculative and more contextual than in years past.

A different combine conversation

The combine remains rooted in numbers. Timed speed, measurements and testing still matter. But as the college football pipeline continues to evolve, NFL teams are interpreting those numbers differently.

For many front offices, today's prospects arrive in Indianapolis with more tape, more experience and clearer profiles than previous draft classes. Rather than resisting that shift, teams are embracing it.

In a draft era defined by change, certainty has become the most valuable trait of all.

Copyright 2026 Columbia Missourian

This story was originally published February 25, 2026 at 10:26 AM with the headline "How NCAA football changes could lead to more certainty in the NFL Draft process."