Magic man: Pavia-led Vanderbilt offense poses serious threat to MU’s playoff hopes

This Vanderbilt program isn’t like others that Missouri has faced since its arrival in the Southeastern Conference in 2012.

For the first time since the 1947 season, the Commodores are in the top 10 of the AP poll following a 31-24 win over LSU this past Saturday.

Mizzou has notched five consecutive wins over Vanderbilt. Coach Eli Drinkwitz hasn’t lost to the Commodores since taking over the Tigers before the 2020 season. But a few of those games have been rather close, particularly last year’s 30-27 win in double overtime.

This version of Vanderbilt poses a much larger challenge. Much like MU, the Commodores added a vast pool of experienced talent through the transfer portal. Their returners, too, have improved while the chemistry of the team has flourished.

“They’ve got players with great experience coming back, but they’re a veteran team,” Drinkwitz said. “Most of the transfers they took out of the portal have played a lot of reps. I think 75% of their team is either a graduate player or senior.”

The Tigers’ second road trip of the year will take them down to Nashville, Tennessee, the site for ESPN’s “College Gameday.” It’s a matchup that could have serious implications for the College Football Playoff.

Do you believe in magic?

Drinkwitz likened quarterback Diego Pavia to a magician. And given all that he can do in the air and with his legs, Pavia will no doubt challenge the Mizzou defense.

Pavia is in his sixth season of college football and second at Vanderbilt after he transferred from New Mexico State. Jokes poking fun at his age aside, he’s earned his status as one of the top quarterbacks in the country. Since becoming a Commodore, he has helped turn the program around along with coach Clark Lea.

Through six games, Pavia has thrown for 1,569 yards and 15 touchdowns with a 70.5% completion rate and four interceptions. His favorite target, tight end Eli Stowers, has gained 355 yards on 28 catches and scored two touchdowns. Wide receiver Junior Sherrill leads the team with five touchdown receptions, while Tre Richardson also presents a tough cover for defenders.

But where Pavia really does his damage is on the ground. The signal-caller has 438 rushing yards this season on 77 carries, good for a 5.7-yards-per-carry average, paired with four touchdowns. He also has running back Sedrick Alexander in the backfield. Alexander has totaled 361 rushing yards and six touchdowns.

The Commodores average the fourth-most yards per carry in the country (6.32), so preventing explosive plays on rushes will be crucial for the Tigers.

“He’s a very headsy runner. He knows how to attack angles,” Drinkwitz said of Pavia. “He knows how to utilize pump fakes with the quarterback position ... can get skinny, and he can lower his shoulder. He’s got all of the traits you want of a really tough, physical runner.”

The responsibility is going to be on the defensive line and edge rushers to get through protection, but it probably shouldn’t be on blitzes.

When it comes to the passing game, Pavia excels when opposing defenses blitz. In fact, 12 of his 15 passing touchdowns have come with an extra rusher or more. But if the likes of Damon Wilson II and Zion Young can get to him quickly, that’s where the Heisman candidate starts to struggle.

Containing Pavia will be easier said than done. Missouri has played dual-threat quarterbacks such as Kansas’ Jalon Daniels and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers well this season, but Vanderbilt is playing on an entirely different level.

To stop this quarterback, Mizzou can’t get tricked by his illusions.

“We’ve got to be really disciplined in how we tackle,” Drinkwitz said. “We’ve got to be disciplined in our angles. It’ll be a real challenge, but so far he’s the best (dual-threat QB) that we’ve seen.”

A less-imposing defense

Missouri has faced two rush defenses that limited its production considerably in its last couple of games. Alabama held the Tigers to 163 rushing yards, while Auburn stuffed the run to 91 yards behind its strong blitz attack. While not a pushover on defense, the Commodores might not present as much of a challenge in that regard.

Vanderbilt ranks 12th in the country in the fewest opponent rushing yards (645) and allows the 12th-lowest rushing yards per game (92.1). But according to SP+, it ranks No. 65 in run defense. The unit creates plenty of havoc that could get through a struggling Mizzou offensive line, but the likes of running back Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts might not have as many problems in converting first downs.

The struggle for Hardy, particularly against Auburn, was the immediate pressure he faced. He actually finished with more yards after contact (65) than his total rushing yards (58). Missouri must do a better job at blocking and opening up the gaps for the UL Monroe transfer, and if it can, the Tigers rushing attack could be reborn.

“If you’re going to win on the road, you need to be able to run the football,” Drinkwitz said. “I think it’s a combination of making sure that we come back to plays that work, and it’s a combination of making sure that our offensive line and tight ends are playing aggressive and they aren’t overthinking and playing with better fundamentals. That’s on our coaching staff to be corrected.”

Lea said his team needs to employ a “run wall” against the Tigers. But the Commodores haven’t faced a rushing attack near the level of Missouri yet - Hardy still leads the SEC in rushing yards, even with the recent tough sledding.

For Mizzou to win this game, the rushing attack can’t afford to be neutralized as it was in the Auburn game. The Vanderbilt offense is far more likely to make it pay if the MU offense can’t get momentum, and that momentum needs to come from Hardy.

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