Mizzou Tigers men’s basketball at Mississippi State: Prediction, time, TV, lineups
The details
When: 8:30 p.m. Central time Friday (game time changed from 6 p.m.)
Where: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, Mississippi
TV: SEC Network
Radio: KMBZ (98.1 FM)
Betting line: Mississippi State by 10.5
About Mississippi State (14-11, 5-7 SEC): The Bulldogs have taken a tumble off the NCAA Tournament bubble after dropping seven of their last nine games, including each of their last four. They lost 80-75 at No. 25 Alabama on Wednesday night after leading by seven points in the second half. Mississippi State has been much better at home than on the road this season though, currently 12-2 at Humphrey Coliseum. Head coach Ben Howland’s squad is led by 6-foot-3 guard Iverson Molinar, who is third in the SEC in scoring with 18.6 points per game. KenPom ranks Mississippi State No. 42.
About Missouri (10-15, 4-8 SEC): The Tigers haven’t been able to string together a pair of consecutive victories in conference play this season. Most recently they fell to No. 23 Arkansas, 76-57, at Mizzou Arena on Tuesday night. Missouri only shot 36.8% from the field in that defeat and only two players — Javon Pickett and DaJuan Gordon — scored in double figures. Pickett has taken a big leap in conference play, averaging 12.2 points per game and shooting a team-best 50.5% from the floor in 10 games (he missed two due to a head injury). KenPom ranks Missouri No. 140.
Projected lineups
P | No. | Mississippi State | Ht. | Yr. | PPG |
G | 1 | Iverson Molinar | 6-3 | Jr. | 18.6 |
G | 5 | Cam Carter | 6-3 | Fr. | 2.8 |
F | 13 | D.J. Jeffries | 6-7 | Jr. | 9.9 |
F | 10 | Garrison Brooks | 6-9 | Gr. | 11.4 |
F | 35 | Tolu Smith | 6-11 | R-Jr. | 11.9 |
P | No. | Missouri | Ht. | Yr. | PPG |
G | 5 | “Boogie” Coleman | 6-5 | Jr. | 9.3 |
G | 4 | Javon Pickett | 6-5 | Sr. | 10.0 |
G | 12 | DaJuan Gordon | 6-3 | Jr. | 8.9 |
F | 23 | Trevon Brazile | 6-9 | Fr. | 5.8 |
F | 24 | Kobe Brown | 6-8 | Jr. | 12.6 |
Prediction
Friday night’s game in Starkville will be the first of two matchups in three days between Missouri and Mississippi State. The second will be played in Columbia on at 7 p.m. Sunday. The teams were set to face in early January, but the schedule was readjusted because of COVID-19 issues within the MU program.
Mississippi State is likely to be without guard Rocket Watts, who has an elbow injury. For Missouri, center Jordan Wilmore remains out with a back injury while freshmen Anton Brookshire (wrist) and Yaya Keita (knee) haven’t been available for the last two games. That leaves Mizzou with eight available players.
The Bulldogs’ offense, which ranks top-30 in the country in efficiency per KenPom, could present quite the challenge to the Tigers. Mississippi State has an offensive rebounding rate of 34.1%, which ranks 30th nationally, and it gets to the free-throw line over 20 times per game on average. Missouri has struggled in both of those areas on defense this season.
Solid on the defensive boards as well, Mississippi State ranks 26th in the country with a rebounding margin of 6.4. All of Missouri’s wins this season have come when it’s won the rebounding battle, so boxing out and out-toughing the Bulldogs on the boards will be paramount.
KenPom gives Missouri a 16% chance of winning while the ESPN BPI has the odds at 6%.
Mississippi State 76, Missouri 67
This story was originally published February 18, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
