Mizzou Tigers men’s basketball at Arkansas Razorbacks: Prediction, time, TV, lineups
The details
When: 8 p.m. Wednesday
Where: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, Arkansas
TV: SEC Network
Radio: KMBZ (98.1 FM)
Betting line: Arkansas by 14
About Arkansas (10-5, 0-3 SEC): The Razorbacks were ranked No. 16 in the AP preseason poll and climbed to as high as No. 10, but have taken a steep decline since. Eric Musselman’s team was picked to finish third in the SEC, but has lost three games to open league play — against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. Arkansas’ skid goes beyond that though: the team has lost five of its last six games after starting the season 9-0. The Razorbacks are led by guard JD Notae, who sits atop the SEC in scoring with 18.8 points per game and also ranks fifth nationally in steals (2.8 per game). KenPom ranks Arkansas No. 54 (as of Tuesday afternoon).
About Missouri (7-7, 1-1 SEC): The Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 92-86 upset over then-No. 15 Alabama. Forward Kobe Brown scored a career-high 30 points and recorded 13 rebounds and four assists in the victory, earning him SEC player of the week honors. Four other Tigers scored in double figures in that game: Jarron “Boogie” Coleman (18), Javon Pickett (15) and DaJuan Gordon (15). Mizzou tied a season-high with nine three pointers and its 19 assists were also the best mark of the year. KenPom ranks Missouri No. 148 (as of Tuesday afternoon).
Projected lineups
P | No. | Arkansas | Ht. | Yr. | PPG |
G | 1 | JD Notae | 6-2 | Sr. | 18.8 |
G | 0 | Stanley Umude | 6-6 | Gr. | 10.5 |
G | 5 | Au’Diese Toney | 6-6 | Sr. | 11.2 |
G | 14 | Jaxson Robinson | 6-6 | So. | 5.2 |
F | 10 | Jaylin Williams | 6-10 | So. | 7.0 |
P | No. | Missouri | Ht. | Yr. | PPG |
G | 4 | Jarron ‘Boogie’ Coleman | 6-5 | R-Jr. | 9.3 |
G | 5 | Javon Pickett | 6-5 | Sr. | 8.9 |
G | 12 | DaJuan Gordon | 6-3 | Jr. | 8.8 |
F | 23 | Trevon Brazile | 6-9 | Fr. | 6.3 |
F | 24 | Kobe Brown | 6-8 | Jr. | 15.3 |
Prediction
Missouri is expected to be back at full strength against Arkansas after missing guards Amari Davis and Anton Brookshire last game because of COVID-19 protocols. Both Coleman and Kaleb Brown played really well in their absence, so it’ll be interesting to see how Martin splits up the minutes there.
Regardless of who is handling the ball, it’ll be key for Mizzou to replicate at least some of the offensive success it had against Alabama. The Tigers did a much better job of driving into the paint and moving the ball around instead of settling for bad looks, and they also just made a lot of shots that weren’t falling previously.
Another important aspect of this game will be the turnover battle. Arkansas has averaged 16.3 turnovers in their three SEC losses, leading directly to an average 24.3 points for its opponents. Missouri will need to capitalize on that in order to win this game.
Mizzou isn’t expected to get a win here, given a 15% chance by KenPom and odds of 10.3% by the ESPN BPI.
The Tigers are riding the momentum of an upset whereas the Razorbacks are sputtering, but getting a win on the road in conference play is a tough task. With that said, I think Missouri keeps this respectable but ultimately isn’t able to pull this one out.
Arkansas 80, Missouri 72
