Mizzou Tigers men’s basketball vs. Utah Utes: Time, TV, lineups, prediction
THE DETAILS
When: 3:30 p.m. Central time Saturday
Where: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Missouri
TV: SEC Network
Radio: KMBZ (98.1 FM)
Betting line: Utah by 3.5
PROJECTED LINEUPS
P | No. | Utah | Ht. | Yr. | PPG |
G | 2 | Both Gach | 6-6 | Sr. | 13.2 |
G | 10 | Marco Anthony | 6-5 | Sr. | 6.6 |
G | 25 | Rollie Worster | 6-4 | So. | 8.0 |
F | 11 | Riley Battin | 6-9 | Sr. | 6.2 |
C | 35 | Branden Carlson | 7-0 | Jr. | 13.9 |
P | No. | Missouri | Ht. | Yr. | PPG |
G | 1 | Amari Davis | 6-2 | Jr. | 10.6 |
G | 5 | Javon Pickett | 6-5 | Sr. | 9.3 |
G | 12 | DaJuan Gordon | 6-3 | Jr. | 8.7 |
F | 24 | Kobe Brown | 6-8 | Jr. | 13.8 |
F | 21 | Ronnie DeGray III | 6-6 | So. | 8.7 |
About Utah (7-3): The Utes are in their first season under Craig Smith, who made the coaching move from Utah State in the offseason. ... All three of Utah’s losses have come against top-70 Kenpom opponents: BYU, USC, and TCU. Smith’s squad is still without a signature win, but it’s taken down two Power Five opponents in California and Boston College. ... The Utes are led by 7-foot center Branden Carlson and 6-6 guard Both Gach, who each average at least 13 points and 1.5 assists per game while shooting over 50% from the field. Carlson also puts up 6.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. Plus he’s great at the line for a big man, shooting 86.1% at the charity stripe this season. ... Kenpom ranks Utah No. 73 (as of Friday afternoon).
About Missouri (5-5): The Tigers have lost four of their last five games against Division I opponents. Most recently, Mizzou went down in blowout fashion, 102-65, against Kansas in an embarrassing showing in the renewal of the Border War rivalry last Saturday. .... Missouri’s offense continues to be one of the worst in the country, especially from deep, where it’s shooting 24.7% against Division-I competition. That mark ranks 353rd out of 358 teams, and the team’s effective field-goal percentage and turnover percentage both fall below 300. ... Kenpom ranks Mizzou No. 153 (as of Friday afternoon).
PREDICTION
After a week without a game, Missouri and Utah square off at Mizzou Arena in just the fourth all-time meeting between the two programs.
There are a few aspects of this matchup that don’t shape up well for the Tigers. As noted above, Mizzou has been horrid on offense. Especially in the half court, where it is only averaging .786 points per possession, which ranks second to last among high-major teams (only Arizona State is worse), according to Synergy. But the half court is where the Tigers will be forced to operate come Saturday, as Utah only turns the ball over 10.8 times per game (35th in the country).
The Utah defense is among the nation’s best in two categories that Mizzou’s offense sits among the worst at as well. The Utes are holding opponents to 25.6% from beyond the arc, which ranks 10th in the country, and they only allow an effective field-goal percentage of 44%, which is 25th. Utah is also a top team in free-throw percentage (79.7%), so the Tigers will need to play with a lot of discipline on defense.
It’s hard to see Missouri winning many more games with how it’s played so far this season, but Saturday is its best opportunity to do so for some time. Kenpom gives the Tigers a 40% chance to win, which is their best projected odds until Feb. 12 against Mississippi (a game they are still projected to lose). The ESPN BPI actually has this one going in Mizzou’s favor, with a 53.2% chance to win. But that seems unlikely to me.
Utah 74, Missouri 62
