Five predictions and game-by-game picks for the Missouri Tigers football season
Eliah Drinkwitz’s second season looks promising. Can the Tigers challenge in the SEC East?
Here are five bold predictions for Missouri’s upcoming season and game-by-game picks.
1. It’s always about the quarterback and Connor Bazelak takes the next step
Connor Bazelak replaced Shawn Robinson against Tennessee in the second week last season and Mizzou had its quarterback. Bazelak went on to pass for 2,366 yards and complete 67% of his throws. The Tigers went 5-3 in his starts. Now, it’s time to take the next step. More touchdown passes — he had seven last season and four of those came in the victory over LSU. No player caught more than one scoring pass in 2020. Bazelak has the tools to challenge for an all-conference spot.
2. Red zone touchdown production improves
It has to, right? The Tigers got touchdowns on 20 of 34 trips to the opponents’ 20 for 59%. Look, the Tigers finished third nationally in red zone scoring at 94.1%. But too often they settled for field goals from the reliable Harrison Mevis. Missouri would take a number similar to what the defense allowed in the red zone last season. Opponents scored touchdowns on 30 of 37 drives, 81%.
3. Martez Manuel fills the leadership void of Nick Bolton
Bolton, set for big things with the Chiefs, was the heart and soul of the 2020 defense. This season, the responsibility falls to Manuel, elected a captain by teammates along with Bazelak and offensive lineman Case Cook. Manuel became a starter at safety last season and recorded 2 1/2 sacks, five pass deflections and seven tackles for loss. He’s ready for the job.
4. They’ll become the takeaway Tigers
Mizzou was minus-5 in turnover margin, which ranked tied for 97th among 127 teams in 2020. The takeaway haul included a mere four interceptions and two of those occurred in the final game, a loss at Mississippi State. Enter new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. After spending the previous 15 years in the NFL including one as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, Wilks looks to create more turnover opportunities for his unit.
5. The schedule is more favorable
Last year, the COVID-19 pandemic forced the SEC into rescheduling and the Tigers picked up Alabama and LSU. Initially that looked like a disaster. But Mizzou played respectably in the opener against the team that would become the national champion and defeated the defending champion in a statement game. This year’s slate appears more favorable with East opponents Tennessee, South Carolina and Florida playing at Faurot Field, along with Texas A&M. The SEC roadies: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia and Arkansas. The season’s second game, at Lexington, Kentucky, is an early statement contest for both programs.
2021 schedule and predictions
Sept. 4 vs Central Michigan (3 p.m. on SEC Network): A good first test for the Tigers. The Chippewas split their six games last season and their strength is on defense with 10 returning starters. This should be a bowl team under former Florida coach Jim McElwain. Missouri 31-17
Sept. 11 at Kentucky (6:30 p.m., SEC Network): Is Week 2 too early to proclaim the most important game of a season? At least this is a measuring stick game for both program. Missouri ended a five-game losing streak to the Wildcats last season. The Tigers seek their second victory in Lexington. Kentucky 28-26
Sept. 18 Southeast Missouri State (11 a.m., SEC Network+): Nice to keep guarantee money to an opponent in the state. The Redhawks were picked second in the Ohio Valley Conference preseason poll. Missouri 45-14
Sept. 25 at Boston College: The Eagles will be a major test for the Tigers’ pass defense. Quarterback Phil Jurkovec, a Notre Dame transfer, passed for 2,558 yards and 18 touchdown passes in 10 games last season. Boston College 33-27
Oct. 2 vs. Tennessee: Former Mizzou offense coordinator Josh Heupel is the Vols’ new head coach and his job is to crank up an offense than finished 11th in the SEC in average total yards. Looks like Michigan transfer Joe Milton will open the season at quarterback. Look for Mizzou to avenge last year’s loss in Knoxville. Missouri 27-24
Oct. 9 vs North Texas: Coach Seth Littrell posted a pair of nine-victory seasons in 2017 and 2018 but the Mean Green are 8-14 since then. Quarterback Austin Aune is a 28-year-old sophomore who spent six years in the Yankees organization. Missouri 42-17
Oct. 16 vs. Texas A&M: In the preseason polls, Georgia is the highest ranked team on Mizzou’s schedule at No. 5. The Aggies are ranked sixth. Big things are expected. This will be a big game for Mizzou linebackers. A&M has one of the nation’s top tight ends in Jalen Wydermyer. Missouri 20-17
Oct. 30 at Vanderbilt: If Missouri pulls it off against the Aggies, the additional week to prepare for Vandy will come in handy. Clark Lea, formerly Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator, is the new head coach. Missouri 27-17
Nov. 6 at Georgia: Quarterback JT Daniels sat out the first half of last season with an injury but came on strong in the second half. The Dawgs have won seven straight in the series and the average margin the last four has been 25 points. Georgia has won the East three of the past four years and once again looks like a national championship contender. Georgia 34-20
Nov. 13 vs. South Carolina. Shane Beamer, Oklahoma’s assistant head coach the previous three seasons, has his first head coaching job. He returns to South Carolina, where he served for four seasons. Look for first-year growing pains for the son of longtime Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer. Missouri 33-23
Nov. 20 vs. Florida. The Gators played in the SEC title game for the first time since 2016 but their eight victories were the team’s fewest in four years. Emory Jones, a true dual threat, takes over at quarterback and this will be a new look offense. The winner remains in the SEC division race. Florida 28-24
Nov. 26 at Arkansas (2:30 p.m., CBS): The Tigers emerged with a thrilling 50-48 victory last season in Columbia for their fifth straight victory in the series. KJ Jefferson is a 6-3, 240-pound quarterback who accounted for four touchdowns and 306 yards in the Mizzou loss. Missouri 31-30
Final record: 8-4 (5-3 SEC)
This story was originally published August 29, 2021 at 5:00 AM.