Missouri Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners in NCAA Tournament: Prediction, time, TV, line
.jpg "Missouri’s Mark Smith (13) drives to the basket against Arkansas’ Moses Moody (5) and Ethan Henderson (24) in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in the Southeastern Conference Tournament Friday, March 12, 2021, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)")
Missouri takes on Oklahoma in an NCAA Tournament first round game on Saturday.
THE DETAILS
When: 6:25 p.m. Saturday
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV: TNT
Radio: KMBZ (98.1 FM)
Betting line: Oklahoma by 1
PROJECTED LINEUPS
P | No. | Oklahoma | Ht. | Yr. | PPG |
G | 12 | Austin Reaves | 6-5 | Sr. | 17.7 |
G | 24 | Elijah Harkness | 6-3 | Jr. | 7.8 |
G | 15 | Alondes Williams | 6-5 | Sr. | 6.4 |
F | 35 | Brady Manek | 6-9 | Sr. | 10.8 |
G | 2 | Umoja Gibson | 6-1 | Jr. | 9.5 |
P | No. | Missouri | Ht. | Yr. | PPG |
F | 23 | Jeremiah Tilmon | 6-10 | Sr. | 12.3 |
F | 24 | Kobe Brown | 6-7 | So. | 8.0 |
G | 13 | Mark Smith | 6-5 | Sr. | 9.6 |
G | 1 | Xavier Pinson | 6-2 | Jr. | 14.1 |
G | 12 | Dru Smith | 6-3 | Sr. | 14.1 |
PREDICTION
About No. 8 seed Oklahoma (15-10): De’Vion Harmon, the Sooners’ second leading scorer, isn’t available this weekend because of a positive COVID-19 test. The Sooners are one of the most experienced teams in the country with three seniors and two juniors expected to start. Two of them are excellent shooters in Austin Reaves and Brady Manek. Reaves has gone for 32 this season, Manek had eight three-pointers in a game. Oklahoma, like Missouri, climbed into the top 10 in early February. Also like the Tigers, OU faded late. The Sooners have lost five of their last six. Oklahoma has become an NCAA Tournament regular under Lon Kruger. They would have been in last year and have missed only one other NCAA trip since 2013. In 2016, the Buddy Hield-led team reached the Final Four.
About No. 9 seed Missouri (16-9): The Tigers are in their first NCAA Tournament since 2018, and only Jeremiah Tilmon on the roster has played in an NCAA game. Mitchell Smith was on that team but taking a redshirt season. Since capping a three-game winning streak by beating Alabama on Feb. 6 — and moving into the top 10 — the Tigers are 3-6. Typically, when Tilmon plays well, so does Missouri. In a SEC Tournament victory over Georgia, Tilmon had 10 points, six rebounds and three blocks. In the the tournament loss to Arkansas, he went for nine points, zero rebounds and zero blocks. Missouri seeks to end a five-game NCAA Tournament losing streak, dating to 2010.
Prediction: It’s amazing how similar the seasons of Missouri and Oklahoma unfolded. Good starts, great stretch in the middle — the teams beat Alabama on successive Saturdays — then hit the skids at the end. So many factors point to this being a nail-biter. Analytics say Oklahoma is a little better on the offensive end, Missouri on the defensive end.
The Tigers shoot it better overall, but Oklahoma slightly better from the three-point arc. Reaves and Manek can heat up. Dru Smith likely will be the first defender on Reaves. Manek’s ability to step outside makes for a difficult matchup for Kobe Brown. This is a game where Mitchell Smith’s length might be a bigger advantage.
Mizzou needs to get Mark Smith untracked. He’s in another shooting slump. It’s been four games since he made his last three-pointer (0-for-11). The Tigers are 10-2 when he scores in double figures.
This game should be as close as the statistics suggest. Look for Tilmon to make the difference, and send the Tigers to a second round game against top seeded Gonzaga.
Missouri 72, Oklahoma 70