Making sense of the Missouri Tigers’ projected seeding in NCAA Tournament bracket
The time between games is filled with NCAA Tournament speculation, and so it is with one of the most interesting cases the men’s basketball selection committee will consider, the Missouri Tigers.
Mizzou prepares for Wednesday’s game at Florida feeling confident about its credentials. The Tigers are 14-7 overall, 7-7 in the SEC.
Their four victories over AP Top 25 teams at tip off are more than any other team in the conference. Next on that list is Ole Miss with three, and that’s because the Rebels defeated a ranked Missouri team twice.
The Tigers’ triumph over Illinois is the league’s best win against outside competition. In a formula previously used by the NCAA that weighs heavily on schedule strength, the Ratings Percentage Index, Missouri was ranked No. 19 entering Tuesday’s games.
Missouri has been ranked as high as No. 10 in the AP poll and spent 11 weeks in the top 25, falling out this week.
Such qualities are why coach Cuonzo Martin believes his team leaves no doubt about its destination — the NCAA Tournament.
“I feel like we’re safely in,” Martin said.
Other measures aren’t as favorable to the Tigers, and that’s why the selection committee might require additional time analyzing Mizzou.
The NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET Rankings, has Missouri at No. 46 entering Tuesday. When it comes to selecting at-large teams, a rating in the 40s is close to or on the bubble.
NET rankings contain two components: a team value index that is results oriented, and an adjusted NET efficiency. That includes offensive and defensive points per possession instead of points per game and also factors in schedule strength and game location.
Why does Mizzou get dinged in the NET? Basically the majority of losses have come against teams that rank below the Tigers and their efficiency numbers in those games drag down the rating.
But the overall record against other teams in the NET rankings favors Missouri. The Tigers are 6-4 against the best teams on its schedule based on the NET.
Missouri’s next two games provide opportunities to improve credentials. After meeting the Gators, No. 26 in the NET ranking, Mizzou plays host to No. 29 LSU.
The Tigers have two games that have been postponed: Last Saturday’s home game against Texas A&M, and a Jan. 12 home game against Vanderbilt. Based on winning percentage they are the bottom two teams in the SEC standing and in NET ranking.
Missouri would be favored in both and any triumph is building block and can be a confidence booster. But from the standpoint of building tournament credentials, the Tigers wouldn’t gain much from those potential victories.
Missouri forward Kobe Brown said he doesn’t sift through the bracket projections on the internet but gets updates.
“I don’t personally (look) but friends call and tell me all the time where they might us,” Brown said.
Those friends are telling Brown that the Tigers are in the field with a range of projections. The latest from CBSSports.com and long time bracket expert Jerry Palm is Mizzou as a No. 6 seed. A collection of brackets on the site bracketmatrix.com has Missouri’s average as a No. 7 seed.
Many brackets have Missouri and Florida in the same neighborhood, heightening the stakes for Wednesday’s game.