Revisiting our predictions for the Missouri Tigers’ basketball season. How did we do?
The Missouri Tigers — and every basketball team in the country — were denied the opportunity to finish their 2019-20 season because of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic when the SEC canceled its tournaments mere hours before the NCAA called off all winter and spring sports championships.
Mizzou coach Cuonzo Martin and his Tigers saw their season come to an abrupt end in Nashville after originally being slated to play Texas A&M in the second round.
An unsatisfying conclusion, to be sure, but there were some positive bits and pieces along the way as the Tigers finished 15-16 (7-11 in the SEC).
Overall, the season didn’t meet expectations for a team hoping for a second NCAA Tournament berth in three years.
Let’s revisit these five predictions and projected win-loss record to see what was surprisingly right ... and completely off the mark.
The predictions
1. Jeremiah Tilmon stays on the court, takes a three-pointer. Verdict: Right and wrong.
If you take this prediction literally, then it was completely wrong. The spirit of it, though, was how Tilmon wouldn’t be as prone to committing fouls as he’d been in the past. And in part, that was correct.
Mizzou’s 6-foot-10 forward fouled out only once this season, and while his old habits occasionally reappeared, this represented a step forward from his days as an underclassman. Tilmon played in 17 of 31 games this season. A stress fracture in his left foot hindered him early in SEC play, but it seemed like he was getting back to his old self near the end of the season.
Overall, he averaged 8.2 points and 4.4 rebounds in 19.9 minutes per game. He is likely investigating his NBA Draft prospects.
On the three-pointer prediction: That was spot on. Tilmon took — and made — a three in Mizzou’s fourth game of the season. It didn’t take long for that one to come true.
2. Mizzou earns a marquee SEC win … and a brutal loss. Verdict: Correct.
This was probably a little too vague, but there were some highlights to Mizzou’s season — defeating ranked Auburn and a good Florida team at Mizzou Arena, for instance. Those victories looked like they might kickstart something sustainable, but the Tigers were felled by inconsistency.
Most brutal conference losses? There are some noteworthy choices. The worst was a 72-45 beatdown at Mississippi State. That was an eye-opener because the Tigers looked totally hapless against the Bulldogs. Mizzou was never in that game and turned in arguably its most disappointing performance of the season.
3. Dru Smith lives up to the hype. Verdict: On the nose.
A lot had been made of Smith, the Evansville guard who transferred and sat out the 2018-19 season because of NCAA rules. He was viewed as a difference-maker on both sides of the ball and didn’t disappoint.
Once the All-SEC teams were announced and Smith wasn’t named to either squad, Martin stuck up for his redshirt junior guard, calling the snub “unfortunate” for a guy who brought so much value to his team.
Smith was Mizzou’s best and most consistent player of the season. He didn’t have highs like Pinson and Smith — there were plenty of games in which he struggled — but his stats show why he was so valuable.
He Mizzou in per-game averages for minutes (32.9), points (12.7), assists (3.9) and steals (2.1) while starting all 31 games, the only Tiger to do so this season.
He’s not the most athletic player, but he excels at pretty much everything.
4. Kobe Brown becomes a pleasant surprise. Verdict: Correct.
Once considered a lesser light in his recruiting class, Brown emerged as Martin’s trusted rookie, playing in his 30 games (26 starts). The Alabama native averaged 5.8 points and 3.7 rebounds.
He showed bits and pieces of who he can be for the Tigers in a few years, though his defense remains a work in process. His 6-foot-7 frame projects well if he can tighten his handles. He was a little too quick to shoot, but Martin wanted him to attack the basket more and he started doing that late in the season.
Based on recruiting rankings and eye-test athleticism, fans were especially excited about the arrival of freshmen Mario McKinney Jr. and Tray Jackson. But both are gone now, with Jackson entering the transfer portal last weekend.
This prediction, meanwhile, was a hit as Brown showed freshman moments but turned into a solid contributor.
5. Slow start, strong finish. Verdict: Correct, but not perfect.
When making this prediction, the expectation was that Mizzou would start slow in its opening five games because of how the SEC schedule lined up. Unfortunately, that slow start became a trend throughout the first half of conference play.
Stumbling to 2-7 in the SEC, the Tigers’ season was more or less over before it really got started.
Bright spot? They finished strong, going 5-4 in the second half of the SEC schedule. The emergence of Pinson as a scoring threat was the key to MU’s run. Even when he wasn’t pouring in career-high point totals, he pressured defenses relentlessly.
Regular-season and March projection: 19-12, 10-8 SEC. NCAA Tournament bid.
Well, this was off.
The Tigers underperformed in their nonconference schedule. They dropped some tough-luck decisions, like an overtime loss to Xavier and that embarrassing game vs. Charleston Southern. An 0-2 record at the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City also hurt their resume.
The real struggles, though, began once the SEC schedule arrived and the Tigers couldn’t manufacture any momentum. There were some games in which Mizzou could’ve eked out a win but instead came up short.
Way-too-early 2020-21 season outlook
Following back-to-back sub-.500 seasons, fans are restless. The Tigers return nearly their entire roster this fall even after the transfers. Senior Reed Nikko is set to graduate, but that’s up in the air as discussions continue about possible eligibility relief for the NCAA’s basketball players.
Tilmon will likely test the NBA waters, though it’s unclear what the pre-draft and draft process will look like as the coronavirus pandemic continues.
Another season of Pinson, Dru Smith, Mark Smith and other talented Tigers means Martin will likely have a deep team. He and his staff have at least two open scholarships to fill, so the current roster could look different in coming months.