Projecting how Mizzou basketball finishes in the SEC — and if Tigers can earn a bye
The Missouri Tigers are in 10th place in the SEC — barely hanging on to a bye in the Southeastern Conference Tournament in Nashville.
The Tigers are tied with the Arkansas Razorbacks at 6-10 in the SEC with the teams splitting their two games on the season. Mizzou holds the tiebreaker over the Hogs as of now, which is why it would be the No. 10 seed if the season ended today.
But there are two games left in the regular season with plenty of chances to move up and down.
For the Tigers, their best shot at postseason play — whether that’s the NIT or the NCAA Tournament or elsewhere — has them earning a first round bye in the conference tournament, which starts March 11 at Bridgestone Arena.
Mizzou has shown spirited play in recent weeks after a 2-7 start in the SEC. But the Tigers stumbled their last time out to Mississippi State in a 67-63 loss. If the Tigers are to finish strong, they’ll be led by Xavier Pinson and Dru Smith, who have captained the Mizzou offfense. Additions like Jeremiah Tilmon and Mark Smith can also give them a necessary lift with the season winding down.
How SEC Tournament works
The bottom four teams, Nos. 11-14, play the first round of the conference tournament. The middle six teams, Nos. 5-10, start on Thursday in the second round. The top four teams earn a double-bye and have their first game in the quarterfinals.
The SEC also has a tiebreaking procedure for seeding purposes. For two teams with the same conference record, the process starts at head-to-head record. After that, the SEC looks at their records against the No. 1 seed in the conference. If the two teams are still tied, it goes to record vs. the No. 2 seed and then so on.
For example, Mizzou and Arkansas are tied at 6-10 in the SEC and are 1-1 against each other. Based on the SEC’s procedure, it compares the teams’ records against No. 1 Kentucky, but both are 0-1. So then it goes to record against No. 2 seed Auburn. Mizzou is 1-0 against Auburn while Arkansas is 0-1, which is why MU is seeded above the Hogs.
For three-team tiebreakers, the conference first looks at the best winning percentage among the three teams. If it’s still tied, they do a similar process as the two-team tiebreaker, looking at record against the No. 1 seed then beyond, if necessary.
Mizzou’s path to a bye in Nashville
Mizzou’s direct competitors for the coveted No. 10 spot in the conference are Arkansas, Mississippi (5-11) and Georgia (5-11).
Mizzou goes to Mississippi for a Wednesday road game and wraps up the season with Senior Day against Alabama on Saturday. On the surface, both are winnable games.
The Tigers already defeated the Rebels, a career-high 32 points from Xavier Pinson carrying Mizzou to victory. But Mississippi gets Mizzou this time at home. Mizzou is also notoriously weak on the road, which hurts its chances at Mississippi.
When Mizzou first played the Crimson Tide, Alabama was on a high, coming off a win over rival Auburn. But Alabama has cooled since then. And with a Senior Day atmosphere, it could boost the Tigers to a win.
Arkansas finishes the season with a home game against LSU and travels to face Texas A&M. Mississippi has Mizzou at home and a road game at Mississippi State. Georgia has Florida and at LSU remaining.
If Mizzou wins its final two games and finishes 8-10, it’s likely be looking at a No. 10 seed in the SEC Tournament, but it also comes down to tiebreakers. There’s a scenario where if the Hogs win out, they can leapfrog Mizzou, but that comes down to how other teams atop the conference finish.
If the Tigers lose at the Rebels on Wednesday, then they would need help elsewhere to keep hold at No. 10.
Based on Wednesday’s results, the Tigers are standing strong based on tiebreakers. Their win over Auburn helps them immensely against Arkansas. They also have a 1-0 record against Georgia. The game against Mississippi will determine a lot to clear up Mizzou’s tournament seeding.
Mizzou doesn’t have the easiest path to finish the season. KenPom projects a 7-11 SEC record for the Tigers. But its renewed play of late can push them over the edge and start the conference tournament on Thursday.
Looking above Mizzou
For the Tigers, they’re primarily fending off Arkansas, Mississippi and Georgia for the No. 10 seed. At 6-10, they’re two games back of three teams at 8-8: Tennessee, Alabama and Texas A&M.
The only way the Tigers catch any of those teams comes down to winning out and one of those teams losing out. But the problem is, Mizzou doesn’t have the tiebreaker to both the Vols (0-1) and the Aggies (0-2). So even if Mizzou ties them in the standings, the Tigers will be seeded below them.
Mizzou has a chance to catch Alabama, but the Crimson Tide also face last-place Vanderbilt at home on Wednesday. Unless the Commodores pull off a major upset, Alabama should finish above the Tigers.
The top of the conference will jostle into position to earn a double-bye as a top-four seed. Kentucky clinched the conference with a win over Auburn on Saturday and will be the No. 1 seed regardless of the results this week.
SEC standings
1. Kentucky 24-5, 14-2 SEC
2. Auburn 24-5, 11-5 SEC
3. LSU 20-9, 11-5 SEC
4. Mississippi State 19-10, 10-6 SEC
5. Florida 18-11, 10-6 SEC
6. South Carolina 17-12, 9-7 SEC
7. Texas A&M 14-14, 8-8 SEC
8. Tennessee 16-13, 8-8 SEC
9. Alabama 16-13, 8-8 SEC
10. Missouri, 14-15, 6-10 SEC
11. Arkansas 18-11, 6-10 SEC
12. Mississippi 14-15, 5-11 SEC
13. Georgia 15-14, 5-11 SEC
14. Vanderbilt 9-20, 1-15 SEC