Mizzou Mailbag: Tigers’ X-factor, projecting the season and spring football
The Mizzou basketball season is winding down with just a few games left. The Tigers are actually shaping up to be a dangerous team once the calendar flips to March.
For one, Mizzou’s playing its best basketball of the season, taking care of business and picking up some impressive wins. But the Tigers are also getting healthy, returning both Jeremiah Tilmon and Mark Smith. Mix in what Xavier Pinson and Dru Smith have been doing in recent weeks and you have a formula for some upsets in March, which, hey, sounds familiar.
Fan expectation simmered a tad after the Arkansas loss, but there’s a healthy dose of optimism after Mizzou took care of business at Vanderbilt. It sets up an intriguing finish to the season, which I think was what fans hoped for after a 2-7 start to SEC play.
Also, spring football and MU coach Eliah Drinkwitz’s first season is right around the corner. First practice is set for March 7, which is also the last day of the basketball regular season. We touch on it a tad, but expect to see more Mizzou football content in the coming weeks.
Let’s get into it. As always, I appreciate the questions and if you want to participate send a question over to sterada@kcstar.com.
I’ll answer the last question first because this is my mailbag and I can. But yes, I have thoroughly enjoyed year one on Mizzou football coverage (along with half a football season and one coaching search).
This is my first job and I had no clue what to expect coming in, but it’s been a great ride covering a major program like Mizzou. The fans are (mostly) great besides a few sour apples, but that’s why the mute function exists on Twitter.
I’m extremely fortunate — especially in this day and age — The Star allows me to travel to nearly every game, home or away. I’ve only missed three regular-season games and that was because football coverage made it difficult to be at two places at once. Traveling to states I’ve never been to and eating great food is the perfect time to spend your early 20s.
But back to the basketball team. I do think Mizzou can end the regular season above .500. I thought the Vandy win massive just because you were going up against a bad team, yes, but it was on the road and the Commodores have shown to be dangerous at times. It wasn’t a gimme, and the Tigers took care of business.
Looking the rest of the way, you have three winnable games in Mississippi State, at Mississippi and Alabama. 2-1 is extremely doable, which would boost Mizzou above .500. It’ll be easy to point at the home games as wins and the road game as a loss, but I don’t think that’s a guarantee.
I’m curious to see how Mizzou plays against Mississippi State at 2:30 p.m. Saturday. The first time the teams met, the Tigers were coming off the great win over Florida … then immediately after they were destroyed by the Bulldogs. It was Mizzou’s worst loss of the season, and how they look against Mississippi State is worth watching.
For the rest of the regular season, I’m pointing at Pinson as Mizzou’s most important player. He brings a different element to the game, and you could see that during the Vandy game. His ability to run in transition — a major Martin emphasis — is huge for this team.
Mizzou’s perked up in recent weeks largely because Pinson has been such a difference-maker. Give him more free reign just as the Tigers have been doing and I see no reason why he isn’t the, uhm … X-factor the rest of the way (sorry, had to).
As for the SEC Tournament, I’m looking at both Tilmon and Mark Smith. They both played on Wednesday and should be eased back into the game plan and rotation for the next three games. It’s much like a trial run for the two as they get used to playing on the court.
It’s difficult to understate how important these two players are for Mizzou from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. Martin said there was a learning curve to playing without them. While multiple players have stepped up in their absence, getting them back right at the SEC Tournament makes Mizzou a dark horse for the tournament.
The Tigers are absolutely in a position to make some noise these next four guaranteed games. Then, hey, maybe we’re talking about the postseason (though mostly the NIT).
At this point, I doubt we’ll see much change in Kobe Brown’s minutes. He’s started 23 games this season and Martin obviously likes what he brings. He can shoot the ball a bit, but Brown’s ability as a driver and finisher is underrated. The freshman’s obviously talented, despite the fact he did not have the greatest recruiting rating.
With Tilmon, he’s likely taking a bit of Parker Braun and Tray Jackson’s minutes, including maybe a bit from Reed Nikko. Playing time all obviously depends on matchups, but there are only so many minutes to go around.
Jackson didn’t play at Vanderbilt, so I’m inclined to think Tilmon’s return might affect Jackson the most. Martin went with Braun a lot at the end of the game against Vandy, which I thought was interesting. Both Tilmon and Nikko weren’t 100%, so that’s likely why Braun played so much.
But, for example, a mix of Braun, Tilmon and Nikko will be matched up with Mississippi State forward Reggie Perry, who’s a beast. There’s not too much of Jackson I can see in that match-up. Against an undersized team like Arkansas, which likes to run more, Jackson has some value there.
This is a long-winded way of saying, we’ll see. Though if you’re a fan, Mizzou fully healthy with depth — its greatest strength — should always be a welcome sight.
Well, at least we’re being specific now! At this point, Mizzou’s best chance to make it to the NCAA Tournament is through winning the SEC Tournament. That’s not out of the realm of possibility, and we’ve seen plenty of double-digit seeds make a run in conference tournaments.
Even when fans were getting excited and mapping out the final six games, there are few particularly noteworthy teams for the rest of the regular season. Yes, what Mizzou is doing is impressive, but its best wins are against Illinois and Auburn. The Tigers’ Quadrant 1 record at 2-10 just isn’t enough for an at-large bid.
If — and this is a huge if — the Tigers win the SEC Tournament, they’re still staring at a low seed on Selection Sunday. There’s a lot going against them in terms of making an improbable postseason run.
But, hey, weirder things have happened.
Connor Bazelak tore his ACL in Mizzou’s last game of the regular season. While technology has come a long way in the past few years for torn ACLs, Bazelak is out for spring ball. The time frame is just too short for him to come back from such an injury.
He should be ready for fall camp, which usually starts right at the beginning of August. Of course, the good and bad thing about a new coach in Drinkwitz is that everybody has to learn the new playbook. It’ll take some time to fully incorporate everything from Drinkwitz’s scheme, so I’m sure Bazelak is studying up on the playbook as I write this and you read this.
Realistically, Shawn Robinson is the projected starter as of now. There’s some familiarity on the staff already as Mizzou running backs coach Curtis Luper and Robinson had two years of crossover at TCU. Robinson is a dual-threat guy and after a year of sitting, should be raring to go this spring.
Taylor Powell should be in the mix and showed some up and down play in 2019 whenever he was pushed into action.
Fans are probably excited the most for Bazelak since he did show some good things in his limited touches. But he’ll be nursing his injury in the meantime.
We should get a lot out of spring ball when it comes to more about the team itself. So far, Drinkwitz and his staff were so focused on recruiting, the last time we spoke to them, they barely talked any Xs and Os. With spring ball coming up, it should give some insight to what fans can expect come kickoff on the 2020 season.