Looking at Mizzou’s NET rating and what the Tigers need to do to make NCAA Tournament
Through 11 games, the Missouri Tigers have work to do if they want to qualify for for the NCAA Tournament.
Entering this week, Mizzou was ranked No. 67 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, which the selection committee uses as a primary metric to compare resumes through Selection Sunday. The NET considers offensive and defensive efficiency, strength of schedule, game location and other elements.
That number means the Tigers are on the outside looking in. While 68 teams qualify for March Madness, 32 spots are reserved for automatic qualifiers who win their conference tournament. To be on the bubble means a quality resume and a NET ranking around 40, though there have been exceptions in the past.
Mizzou’s 7-4 record isn’t great, though there are bright spots. The Tigers are 2-3 in Quadrant 1 games, which the committee looks at closely.
Quadrant 1 games are determined based on the quality of opponent and where the game is played. If a team plays an opponent ranked No. 1-30 at home, No. 1-50 at a neutral site or No. 1-75 on the road, it’s considered a Quadrant 1 game.
The Tigers got one of their best wins of the season in the Braggin’ Rights Game, a 63-56 victory over No. 41 Illinois on a neutral court. Their victory at Temple (40) also boosts Mizzou’s resume, especially because it was a true road game.
The other three Quadrant 1 losses were at the Hall of Fame Classic to Stanford (12) and Oklahoma (43), and at Xavier (51). None of those games are particularly back-breaking and were against quality opponents.
The main problem is the upset loss to Charleston Southern (290). Considering it was at Mizzou Arena, that’ll go down as a Quadrant 4 loss, the worst kind you can have as a power conference team. When it comes down to comparing resumes, the defeat will bring Mizzou down a few notches.
Looking ahead
Mizzou has two nonconference games remaining: vs. Chicago State (347) and at West Virginia (10). While the road game against the Mountaineers isn’t a must-win by any stretch, it would do wonders for Mizzou’s resume. But 1-1 with a win over Chicago State and a loss to West Virginia is likely, which puts Mizzou’s nonconference record at 8-5.
The main course is conference play; 18 games against SEC teams. To earn an at-large bid, a 10-8 SEC record is likely not enough, though it depends on which teams Mizzou beats. An 11-7 showing and a win or two in the SEC Tournament in Nashville would help.
The Tigers will need to improve their three-point shooting to give them a larger margin of error. Their 27.1% from three is ranked 335th in the nation. Even a modest increase in percentage gives the Tigers a few extra points. For a Martin-led team that grinds physically and slows down the pace, those extra points are significant.
Martin also said their 13th-ranked scoring defense can play about 25% better in terms of effort and performance, which would vault the Tigers into elite territory.
The season’s about a third of the way finished. While Mizzou isn’t in a great position, making some noise in SEC play is its best bet to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years under Martin.