Let the March Madness begin: Tips for filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket
The 68-team field is set for the NCAA Tournament, and the quest begins to fill out the perfect bracket.
Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida are the top seeds. And the Cougars, Gators and Blue Devils — even without injured Cooper Flagg — looked great in winning their conference tournaments.
St. John’s, coached by the ageless Rick Pitino, is terrific. This is one of Tom Izzo’s better Michigan State teams, and he’s had plenty of them do well in March.
North Carolina was the final at-large team selected. Indiana didn’t get in.
A record 14 SEC teams made the field. The “Just Means More” conference dominated college basketball this season. The league is seeking its first national hoops championship since Kentucky in 2012.
So now it’s time to pick the perfect bracket. According to the NCAA, the odds of doing that are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. If that number was rounded off to nine quintillion, that’s nine followed by 18 zeroes.
Or, about the same odds of a windless spring day in Kansas City.
Here are some trends that could help in building a good bracket:
Start in the middle and work back
Start by Identifying your Final Four teams. That way you’ve picked between 16-20 games before getting to the more difficult decisions.
But which Final Four teams? Find at least two No. 1 seeds. Since the bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985 the national champion has been a top-seeded team 25 times — and not a No. 1 seed 14 times.
Last year, two No. 1 seeds — Connecticut and Purdue — played for the championship. But in 2023, no top seeds reached the Final Four. At least two No. 1s have reached the Final Four in 20 of the past 39 Final Fours, though.
Other streaks to consider:
- Oregon, a No. 5 seed taking on Liberty in the East, is 8-8 in first-round games under coach Dana Altman.
- Gonzaga, a No. 8 seed meeting Georgia in the Midwest, has appeared in nine straight Sweet 16s.
- Kansas, the No. 7 seed in the West, is making its 35th straight appearance. But the Jayhawks have lost in the second round in four of their last five appearances. The lone exception was the 2022 national championship team.
- Connecticut is the two-time defending champion, but the Huskies, seeded eighth in the West, might have caught a tough draw in Oklahoma.
Where to shop for upsets
David-over-Goliath upsets in the early rounds? That’s what puts the madness into March.
But picking too many upsets increases the risk you’ll eliminate yourself from the pool early on.
Finding one or two No. 12 seeds to win first-round games has become a bracket standard because it often involves a mid-major program defeating a power-conference school. Last season, James Madison defeated Wisconsin in this spot.
From a percentage standpoint, the Nos. 10, 11 and 12 seeds have won first-round games at around the same 35-40 percentage rate. But the mid-major with such a seed can be a good pick. Often, those teams have excellent records, which means they’ve won plenty of close games.
Take a team like Drake. The Bulldogs, coached by former Northwest Missouri State’s Ben McCollum, rolled through the Missouri Valley Conference regular season and tournament. As a No. 11 seed, Drake will meet Missouri, which delivered one of the nation’s great turnaround seasons after finishing 0-18 in SEC play last year.
No. 6 seed Mizzou-Drake will tip off in Wichita on Thursday.
Another upset to consider is in the West Region, where No. 12 Colorado State takes on fifth-seeded Memphis. The Tigers could be without star player Tyrese Hunter, who sat out the AAC championship game with a foot injury.
Find an Opening Round team with potential
The NCAA Tournament starts Tuesday with Opening Round games.
This appetizer was added in 2011, and in every year but one since then, at least one team that wins a game in Dayton has won its next game, too. Twice — VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021 — an Opening Round team even reached the Final Four.
North Carolina will meet San Diego State on Tuesday and will hear plenty about how it was the last team selected to the field. Questioning their inclusion on the bracket could be fuel for a Tar Heels run.
Don’t stress after the first weekend
Everybody is going to pick upsets. Everybody is going to miss games.
As long as you have Final Four teams alive after the first weekend, you’re still in good shape. But if not, there’s always the second-chance pool.
My Final Four: Houston, Florida, Michigan State and Wisconsin.