NCAA Tournament

The win probability chart for the Purdue-Tennessee game was insane. This is how it ended

It’s a cliche, sure, but Purdue’s 99-94 overtime win over Tennessee on Thursday night in a South Region semifinal in Louisville was like a heavyweight boxing match.

Over the last five minutes of regulation, the Volunteers and Boilermakers took turns delivering ridiculously long three-pointers and thunderous dunks.

Forty minutes wasn’t enough to decide the game, but third-seeded Purdue never trailed in overtime and advanced to its first Elite Eight under coach Matt Painter.

Purdue appeared to be in control, up 18 at one point. It led 65-51 with just over 10 minutes to play, but Tennessee’s 14-0 run tied the game, and the teams traded the lead — and huge shots — down the stretch.

Grant Williams delivered a thunderous dunk with 10 seconds to play to give the Volunteers an 82-80 lead. Carson Edwards was fouled on a three-point attempt with 1.7 seconds to play, and made two shots to force overtime.

In the extra period, Matt Haarms made one of two free throws and Nojel Eastern’s tip-in gave Purdue an 85-82 advantage. After a pair of free throws by Tennessee’s Kyle Alexander, the Boilermakers scored six consecutive points and seized control of the game.

Here is how the final win probability chart from FiveThirtyEight.com looked:

Purdue advanced to face the winner of the Virginia-Oregon game for the right to go to the Final Four.

This story was originally published March 28, 2019 at 9:14 PM.

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