What it will take for the heavy-underdog KU Jayhawks to beat Arizona on the road
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- KU needs an efficient game and solid defense from Peterson to upset Arizona.
- KU must limit Koa Peat and Christian Burks while switching on defense.
- Road environment, Peterson's form and matchup dynamics will shape KU's upset chances.
The Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set for a Saturday showdown at No. 2 Arizona in Tucson on Saturday.
No. 14 KU (21-7, 11-4 Big 12) beat Houston on Monday, while Arizona beat Baylor on Tuesday. KU won the first meeting against Arizona this season, in Allen Fieldhouse, earlier this month.
Here is more about Saturday’s game, including a scouting report and prediction:
Kansas basketball vs. Arizona: Game details
When: 3 p.m. Central Time on Saturday
Where: Tucson, Arizona (McKale Center)
TV/streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 26-2
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: 3
Betting line: Arizona is an 8.5-point favorite.
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats include only Division-I competition.
Arizona Strengths
- Forces opponents into tough shots: Arizona ranks No. 7 in opponent effective field goal percentage (45.1%).
- Glass eaters: U of A ranks No. 5 in offensive rebounding percentage (38.6%).
- Elite offense and defense: The Wildcats rank No. 3 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (90.6), which measures the number of points surrendered per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. Arizona is also No. 8 in adjusted offensive efficiency (126.9).
Arizona Weaknesses
- Long-ball issues: Arizona ranks No. 361 in 3-point rate (28.6)
- Struggle to make freebies: The Wildcats rank No. 168 in free-throw percentage (72.8%)
- Little bench usage: Arizona ranks No. 259 in bench minutes percentage (29.3%)
Arizona Name to Know
6-foot-4 freshman guard Brayden Burries (No. 5)
+ Good, dependable scorer (15.5 points per game)
+ Solid rebounder (4.6 per game)
+ Good shooter (37.2% on 3-pointers)
+ Pest on defense (1.6 steals per game)
- Turnover prone (1.3 per game)
- Okay free-throw shooter (76.1%)
Kansas-Arizona game prediction
This is a huge game for both teams, but especially for the Jayhawks. If KU harbors any real hopes of capturing the Big 12 title, winning this one on the road is a must.
It won’t exactly be easy. The Wildcats have only lost one game at home all season: against Texas Tech on Feb. 14. Arizona just doesn’t have many weaknesses.
For Kansas, the key to this game will be playing stellar defense and getting out to a big lead. If KU can force Arizona, which doesn’t take a lot of 3-pointers, into a shootout to catch up, there’s a path to victory.
That said, I think this game will be a competitive loss for the Jayhawks. There’s a lot that would need to happen for them to pull off the upset, and I just don’t see Arizona stumbling twice against KU.
Prediction: Arizona 75, Kansas 68
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (+8.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 22-6
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 20-7
Player to Watch: Darryn Peterson
KU’s freshman star has shot better than 40% from the field just once in his last five games. He missed KU’s game against Arizona and has struggled to regain his form ever since.
For Kansas to pull off the upset, an efficient game from Peterson is mandatory. And he will have to play good defense against Arizona stars Koa Peat and Burries, given how much KU switches on defense.
