KU basketball prediction: Will Darryn Peterson reassert himself against Houston?
The Kansas men’s basketball team hosts No. 2 Houston on Monday night.
No. 8 KU (20-7, 10-4 Big 12) lost to Cincinnati on Saturday, while Houston fell to Arizona.
Here is more about Monday’s game, including a scouting report and prediction:
Kansas basketball vs. Houston: Game details
When: 8 p.m. Central on Monday
Where: Allen Fieldhouse
TV/streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 23-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: 6
Betting line: Houston is a 1.5-point favorite.
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats include only Division-I competition.
Houston Strengths
- Forces opponents into tough shots: Houston ranks No. 16 in opponent effective field goal percentage (46.5).
- Turnover generators: UH ranks No. 12 in opponent turnover percentage (21.4).
- Elite offense and defense: The Cougars rank No. 7 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (94.3), which measures the number of points surrendered per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. UH is also No. 9 in adjusted offensive efficiency (126.2).
Houston Weaknesses
- Long-ball issues: Houston ranks No. 179 in 3-point percentage (34%).
- Struggle to draw fouls: The Cougars rank No. 352 in free-throw rate (26.6)
- Little bench usage: UH ranks No. 276 in bench minutes percentage (28.5)
Houston Name to Know
6-foot-4 freshman guard Kingston Flemings (No. 4)
+ Good, dependable scorer (16.6 points per game)
+ Solid rebounder (3.9 per game)
+ Quality passer (5.2 assists per game)
+ Good shooter (38.1% on 3-pointers)
+ Above-average free throw shooter (84.7% on free throws)
+ Pest on defense (1.6 steals per game)
- Turnover prone (2 per game)
Kansas-Houston game prediction
This is an important game for both sides. The Jayhawks (10-4 Big 12) are currently tied for third in the Big 12 with Texas Tech and Iowa State, while Houston (11-3) is in second behind first-place Arizona (12-2).
On top of that, both teams suffered a significant loss Saturday. Houston has lost two straight games and will try to avoid losing three in a row for the first time since 2007, while KU will try to avoid losing two straight at home for the first time since 1988-89.
While this should be an exciting matchup, it won’t be easy for the Jayhawks. The key? KU’s defense.
If Kansas can limit Houston’s sharpshooter duo of Flemings and Emanuel Sharp (16.4 PPG, 37.9% from 3), it will have a chance to pull off the narrow upset.
On the flip side, KU’s offense needs to avoid turnovers. The Cougars, by several metrics, are average on offense, but they excel at creating extra possessions, which can skew the numbers. Points in transition and off turnovers usually come at a higher efficiency.
And one X-factor? It could be Darryn Peterson, who is due for a breakout game after a mini-slump of late. I think he’ll give the Jayhawks an edge in what’s sure to be a close game.
Prediction: Kansas 71, Houston 66
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (+1.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 21-6
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 19-7
Player to Watch: Darryn Peterson
The discussion around Peterson’s health issues seems never-ending — both from national media members and NBA Draft experts. And that conversation got louder Saturday.
Peterson struggled vs. Cincinnati, finishing with 17 points on 7-for-17 shooting. He only made one 3-pointer on seven attempts.
KU will need him to make some 3-pointers Monday. On top of that, Peterson will need to limit Flemings on defense. If he can do those two things — and provide clutch shots in timely situations — Kansas will likely win.
