KU basketball prediction: One key matchup the Jayhawks must win at Texas Tech
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- KU must limit Texas Tech’s 3-point shooting and avoid a Lubbock shootout.
- Contain JT Toppin’s recent scoring surge to curb Tech’s inside-out offense.
- Shreyas Laddha predicts narrow KU win; Jayhawks have won 5 straight entering Monday.
The Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team heads on the road to face Texas Tech on Monday.
No. 14 KU (16-5) beat BYU on Saturday, while No. 11 Texas Tech lost to UCF. The Jayhawks will look to extend their winning streak to six games.
Here is more about Monday’s game, including a scouting report and prediction:
No. 14 Kansas vs. No. 11 Texas Tech: Game details
When: 8 p.m. Central on Monday, Feb. 2.
Where: United Supermarkets Arena (Lubbock, Texas)
TV/streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 16-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: 19
Betting line: Texas Tech is a 2.5-point favorite.
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats include only Division-I competition.
Texas Tech Strengths
Efficient inside: Tech ranks No. 60 in 2-point percentage (57.4%).
Bombs away: The Red Raiders rank No. 13 in 3-point percentage (39.1%).
Elite offense: Texas Tech ranks No. 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (125.8), which measures the number of points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent.
Texas Tech Weaknesses
Limited trips to line: The Red Raiders rank No. 323 in free-throw rate (29.2).
Don’t force turnovers: Texas Tech ranks No. 284 in opponent turnover rate (15.3)
No bench trust: Tech ranks No. 361 in bench minutes percentage (18.4)
Texas Tech Name to Know
6-foot-9 junior forward JT Toppin (No. 15)
+ Elite scorer (22.4 points per game)
+ Efficient scorer (56.9% from the field)
+ Great rebounder (10.9 per game)
- Bad free-throw shooter (52.2% at the free-throw line)
- Issues from deep (27.3% on 3-pointers)
- Turnover prone (2.7 per game)
Kansas-Texas Tech game prediction
After a big win over BYU, Kansas faces a tough test in Lubbock.
The Red Raiders are coming off a loss vs. UCF, and Lubbock is always a tough to play, so KU will have to start strong from the jump.
Defensively, KU’s focus should be on limiting the Red Raiders’ 3-point shooting. If Texas Tech gets rolling, it’ll get the crowd even more into it. The Jayhawks do not want to get into a shootout.
On top of that, KU needs to limit Toppin. He comes into the game red-hot, averaging 27.6 points over his last five games. So if Kansas can limit him, it’ll go a long way toward winning the game.
On offense, KU has a big advantage. There’s no player on the Tech roster that can defend freshman Darryn Peterson without requiring help. On top of that, KU should force the ball inside, as the Red Raiders struggle to defend inside the arc.
I expect this game to be close, but the Jayhawks are more talented overall. Plus, KU comes into Lubbock playing excellent basketball. I think they’ll keep it going.
Prediction: Kansas 74, Texas Tech 71
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (+2.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 17-4
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 14-7
KU Player to Watch: Bryson Tiller
KU freshman Bryson Tiller had his best game of the season vs. BYU. Not only did he drop a career-high 21 points, but he finally played true to his size and with aggression.
For the first time in a long time, Tiller looked comfortable. He’s scored at least 15 points in his last two games, so let’s see if he can keep that going vs. Texas Tech.
Plus, he will likely guard Toppin. If he can make things difficult, KU likely ends up as the victor.
This story was originally published February 2, 2026 at 7:00 AM.
