Kansas vs. Arizona game prediction: Can the Jayhawks make Big 12 Tournament semis?
The Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team will play No. 3-seeded Arizona in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament on Thursday.
Kansas defeated UCF in an overtime thriller Wednesday. Meanwhile, Arizona had a bye through the early rounds of the tournament.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 6 seed Kansas vs. No. 3 seed Arizona
When/where: 8:30 p.m., Thursday, T-Mobile Center (Kansas City)
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 20-11
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 16
Betting line: Arizona is a 1.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Arizona Strengths
Elite offense: Arizona ranks No. 14 in adjusted offensive efficiency (115.3). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the number of points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. KU ranks No. 47 in the same metric.
Crash the glass: The Wildcats rank No. 15 in offensive rebounding percentage (36.5).
Free throw makers: Arizona ranks No. 20 in free-throw percentage (78.3%).
Arizona Weaknesses
Don’t take 3s: Arizona ranks No. 276 in 3-point rate (35.1).
Struggles from deep: The Wildcats are shooting 31.8% on 3-pointers, ranking No. 278 overall.
Lack of bench trust: Arizona ranks No. 226 in bench minutes percentage (29.7).
Arizona Name to Know
6-foot-4 senior guard Caleb Love (No. 1)
+ Quality scorer (16.4 PPG)
+ Good at the line (shooting 87.7% on free throws)
+ Good rebounder for his size (4.1 RPG)
- Not an efficient scorer (shooting 37.6% from the field)
- Turnover prone (2 TPG)
- Struggling from deep (31.8% on 3-pointers)
Game prediction
Arizona is a talented squad that plays well on both sides of the ball. But the Wildcats have a key weakness — the Wildcats don’t take (or make) many 3-pointers.
The Jayhawks are the same way.
Although Arizona has had a better Big 12 season than Kansas, the Wildcats don’t have the typical M.O. of a team the Jayhawks struggle to beat.
The common theme in KU’s losses this season: the Jayhawks’ struggles on perimeter defense.
In KU’s last five losses, opponents have hit 11-plus 3-pointers four times. In the battle of trading 2-point shots — and what will likely be a defensive slugfest — Kansas should prevail.
I like the Jayhawks to win and cover.
Kansas 74, Arizona 69
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (+1.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 25-7
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 18-14
KU Player to Watch: AJ Storr
Kansas guard AJ Storr had his best game in a Jayhawk uniform vs. UCF. He finished with 19 points, two assists and two rebounds.
Coach Bill Self believes it’ll help him build confidence.
“He was good offensively, so hopefully he will have some confidence,” Self said. “It seems like to me in years where we’ve done well in the postseason — we’ve had an unexpected guy kind of come through. Nobody expected Malik Newman to do what he did. Nobody expected Remy (Martin) to do what he did.
“... This isn’t exactly an Elite Eight game tonight, but there’s absolutely no reason why AJ can’t be that guy for us.”
Let’s see if Storr can prove Self right.
