Could Big 12 Tournament alter KU basketball’s NCAA Tournament seed? What Bill Self says
As an NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed 10 times in the 22-year Bill Self era, Kansas basketball has entered several postseasons wondering if it would be better to bow out of the Big 12 tourney with an early loss rather than expend too much energy heading into the all-important Big Dance.
That’s not anybody’s sentiment this year.
KU’s upcoming seeding in March Madness is a big unknown heading into Wednesday’s second-round Big 12 tourney contest between KU and the winner of Tuesday’s UCF-Utah game (8:30 p.m., T-Mobile Center).
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi currently projects unranked KU (20-11, 11-9) to be a No. 7 seed in the Midwest Regional. In his crystal ball, the Jayhawks will play Arkansas in a first-round game on Thursday, March 20, in Lexington, Kentucky.
“A lot of teams had good years and better years than us. There is still an opportunity for us to play into a better seed this week,” KU coach Self said Monday night on his weekly Hawk Talk radio show.
“Our lowest seed the last 24 years (at KU and Illinois) is a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament — (that’s) the lowest, the worst. I think we are outside of that now. I think we could play to that if things fall right. That can happen. So much of it is mental, but I do think this team has it in them. I do. And I think we have a player we can play through,” Self added of senior center Hunter Dickinson.
“We kind of screwed this up from expectations. There is still an opportunity for us to right the ship. We’ve just got to go do it,” Self stated.
The Jayhawks, who at 11-9 in league play also may have extra incentive to atone for a sixth-place finish in the standings, just might be entering the Big 12 tourney as a team that could be as seeded as low as No. 5 or as high as No. 8 in the NCAAs, depending on KU’s performance this week in Kansas City.
If KU defeats the UCF/Utah winner at 8:30 p.m. on Wednesday, upends Arizona on Thursday and possibly Texas Tech on Friday, the team might improve a seed line or two in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament Committee.
“We’re actually in the committee’s eyes I think better than our record, because the analytics say that we’re No. 18 in the NET right now, which would make us a 5 seed. Top 20 would be a 5 seed 17 through 20,” Self said.
Indeed, KU enters Wednesday’s game with an 18 NET ranking. KU is 5-10 against Quad 1 opposition, 6-1 against Quad 2, 6-0 against Quad 3 and 3-0 versus Quad 4.
“I don’t think we’re that right now. I think we played too poorly over a stretch that would put us outside of that,” Self said, referring to the 5 seed. “But I think that there’s a possibility to get back inside of that if we play really well this week. I think there’s a possibility that we could actually drop more if we don’t play well.
“The league is so good, if you play well and you advance, you’ve got to beat really good teams to advance, just like Arizona I think this week is 13 (in NET). I know you look at the polls (KU is unranked), and I do, too, to an extent, but I don’t think the committee is going to look at where you’re ranked.
“I think they’re going to base their information on evidence, whereas rankings are based on people’s opinions,” Self added.
Self stated that “Duke and Auburn all obviously have a 1 seed locked up. I think Houston’s probably got a 1 seed locked up after that. It would be hard to keep Tennessee off the 1 line if they win the (SEC) Tournament. It’d be hard to keep Alabama off the 1 line if they win the SEC tournament. Things going on when you get past those three will be determined by what happens this week and performance.”
Of the teams in KU’s immediate path … the Jayhawks defeated UCF twice and lost to Utah once during the regular season. KU beat Arizona 83-76 behind Dickinson’s 33-point outing on Saturday. Also, KU fell to Texas Tech 78-73 on March 1 at Allen Fieldhouse.
Arizona might have revenge on its mind in a meeting against KU on Thursday. A Texas Tech-KU contest Friday could be an emotional game for the Jayhawks, considering they also lost by 29 points to Tech during the 2023-24 season in Lubbock.
Also, Houston defeated the Jayhawks twice this season after going 1-1 versus KU its first year in the Big 12.
“No matter who we play we’ve got to say we like the draw, but yes, I think it’s fine,” Self said. “We’re going to have to play (well), but that’s the way it should be. You should have to play to advance and win. I think it’s something that is very challenging obviously, but we’re capable.”
Self was encouraged by his team’s play Saturday.
The Jayhawks snapped a two-game losing streak by putting up 83 points against Arizona, which was No. 24 in the AP poll last week but has dropped out this week.
“There’s a lot of ball to be played,” Self said, “before we could even lay any claim to be deserving of wherever (the committee) have us right now because we’ve kind of screwed this up from expectations. Still there is time (to rally this postseason).”
Self acknowledges this postseason figures to have a different feel from past years when KU had a No. 1 or 2 seed.
“I actually think a lot of years we had a better season than probably what our team and talent was,” Self said. “This year I think we’ve had a worse season than what our team and our talent is. So let’s go play our best when it actually counts. I don’t mean to be negative, but I believe that’s true. A lot of people think because you’re 1 seed, you should win every game. Well, no. The most talented teams have the best chance to win games.
“That (KU) team in 2018 that beat Duke in the Elite Eight game … they (Blue Devils) had four first-rounders and two lottery picks. We go win that game. People assume, ‘Well you are a 1, you should win that game.’ Or when we were a 1 and played UCLA (in 2007) and they were a 2 and they’re running out there Darren Collison, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love. It’s like, wow, NBA all-stars (who defeated KU). It takes pride because the guys played at such a high level over the course of four months they earn that (top seed). This year we haven’t earned it but we still have a chance to play our best right now.”
