Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona prediction: Will KU keep its Senior Day win streak going?
The Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team will play No. 24 Arizona on Saturday.
KU lost to Houston on Monday, while Arizona beat ASU on Tuesday. The Jayhawks will also honor seven seniors as part of Senior Day festivities on Saturday.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
Kansas vs. No. 24 Arizona: Game details
When/where: 3:30 p.m., Saturday, Allen Fieldhouse (Lawrence)
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 20-10
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 14
Betting line: Kansas is a 3.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Arizona team strengths
Elite offense: Arizona ranks No. 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.6). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the number of points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. KU ranks No. 60 in the same metric.
Sound defense: The Wildcats rank No. 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (96.4).
Free throw makers: Arizona ranks No. 22 in free-throw percentage (78.1).
Arizona team weaknesses
Struggles from deep: Arizona ranks No. 290 in 3-point percentage (31.6%)
Don’t take many 3s: The Wildcats rank No. 290 in 3-point rate (35.3). Kansas ranks No. 308 in the same metric.
Lack of bench trust: Arizona ranks No. 173 in bench minutes percentage (31.5).
Arizona Name to Know
6-foot-4 senior guard Caleb Love (No. 1)
+ Quality scorer (16.4 PPG)
+ Great at the line (87.3% on free throws)
+ Good rebounder for his size (4.6 RPG)
- Not an efficient scorer (shooting 37.5% from the field)
- Turnover prone (2 TPG)
- Struggles from deep (shooting 31.5% on 3-pointers)
Game Prediction
One of the most interesting parts of this matchup is that both teams don’t take many 3-pointers. Arizona also struggles to convert 3-pointers, shooting just 31.6% on the season.
So, expect this game to be a defensive slugfest, given how good both teams are on defense.
I know it sounds simple, but whoever wins the rebounding and turnover battles will win this game. In recent games, the Jayhawks have struggled mightily in both areas, so this could spell trouble for Kansas.
On top of that, Arizona ranks No. 13 in offensive rebounding percentage — so KU will have to make a significant effort to ensure the Wildcats don’t dominate the glass.
But ... it’s Senior Day in Allen Fieldhouse, which should favor the Jayhawks and their 40-year streak. Throw in KU’s stellar defense, and I believe Kansas will do enough to win this game.
I like Kansas to win and cover.
Kansas 70, Arizona 65
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-3.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 23-7
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 17-13
KU Player to Watch: Zeke Mayo
KU star Zeke Mayo is in the midst of quite a slump. He hasn’t hit double-digit points in four games. On top of that, Mayo has had 16 turnovers in four games.
Mayo has looked tentative and in his own head during the last few games. As Kansas ends its regular season, Mayo must get back on track before the elimination games start.
In my opinion, the best way to do that is for him to shoot himself out of the slump. Let’s see if he takes double-digit shot attempts vs. Arizona.
