KU basketball vs. Texas Tech game prediction: Can Jayhawks beat ranked Red Raiders?
The Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to play No. 10 Texas Tech on Saturday.
KU beat Colorado on Monday, while a shorthanded Texas Tech lost to Houston.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
Kansas vs. No. 10 Texas Tech
When/where: 1 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse (Lawrence)
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 21-7
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 7
Betting line: Kansas is a 4.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Texas Tech team strengths
Elite offense: Texas Tech ranks No. 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency (123.8). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the number of points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. KU ranks No. 60 in the same metric.
Long ball lovers: The Red Raiders shoot a solid 37.6% on 3-pointers, ranking No. 28 overall.
Free throw makers: Tech ranks No. 39 in free throw percentage (76.8%). KU ranks No. 242 in the same metric.
Texas Tech team weaknesses
Struggles getting to the line: Texas Tech ranks No. 281 in free throw rate (29.9)
Shorter squad: The Red Raiders rank No. 289 in average height (6-foot-4)
Lack of bench trust: Texas Tech ranks No. 238 in bench minutes percentage (29.5).
Texas Tech Name to Know
6-foot-9 sophomore forward JT Toppin (No. 3)
+ Quality scorer (17.2 PPG)
+ Elite rebounder (9.2 RPG)
+ Block machine (1.2 BPG)
- Not much of a passer (1 assist per game)
- Turnover prone (1.7 TPG)
– Not a long-range shooter (shooting 29.4% on 3-pointers)
Tale of the Tape
Texas Tech is a dangerous squad from deep and the Red Raiders aren’t shy at taking 3-pointers, ranking No. 93 in 3-point rate.
Senior guard Kerwin Walton is a big reason why; he took 11 3-pointers vs. Houston (making four).
He’s shooting 38.4% on 3-pointers so far this season. This highlight illustrates how dangerous Walton is from deep.
Here, the Texas Tech guard drove toward the mid-range area and passed it back to Walton, who quickly canned the 3-pointer before the UH defender could fully contest.
One of the most significant differences in the Jayhawks’ play over the last few games is their perimeter defense. During their two-game winning streak, KU has limited opponents to 26.5% shooting on 3-pointers.
That defense will be tested against a Red Raiders squad that does an excellent job of finding quality shots.
Kansas has to do a good job communicating on ball screens — a struggle at various points this season — and force Texas Tech to take tough shots.
Look for KU to run Texas Tech off the 3-point line. If the Red Raiders get going from deep, it’ll be hard for a Kansas squad that doesn’t take many 3-pointers to keep up.
Game Prediction
Kansas forward Rylan Griffen credited KU’s “0-0” mentality with helping secure two straight wins. The Jayhawks look to extend their streak to three vs. No. 10 Texas Tech.
It won’t be easy.
While Texas Tech isn’t the biggest team, the Red Raiders are elite on both ends (top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency).
On top of that, Tech is methodical at getting quality shots beyond the arc. Three-pointers account for 36% of their total points — ranking No. 69 nationwide.
The Jayhawks have struggled this season putting pressure on opponents and forcing them to make mistakes.
Kansas ranks No. 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency but has lacked ball pressure, with opponents’ turnover percentage at 16.1. That ranks No. 261 overall.
If Texas Tech gets off to a quick start, this could turn ugly quickly for the Jayhawks. That said, I actually like Kansas in this one.
KU seems to understand its wins come with quality starts; the Jayhawks have started games much better lately.
Another factor: Under coach Bill Self, Kansas is 26-5 against AP top-10 teams in games played in Allen Fieldhouse, including 2-1 this season.
I believe Kansas will start strong due to the Allen Fieldhouse crowd and hold on to win a close game.
I think KU will win, but not cover.
KU 75, Texas Tech 71
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Texas Tech (+4.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 22-6
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 16-12
KU Player to Watch: Zeke Mayo
Kansas guard Zeke Mayo is in the midst of a shooting slump. He had four points on 1-for-5 vs. Colorado. He’s shooting 33% from the floor over his last three games.
Mayo has significantly better stats and shooting splits in Allen Fieldhouse vs. on the road — so let’s see if he bounces back vs. the Red Raiders. He’s averaging 17.5 points per game at home while shooting 47.3% from the field.
Meanwhile, he drops to 10.1 points on 39.3% shooting on the road. His play will be pivotal for the Jayhawks to beat a top-10 team at home.
