Kansas vs. Iowa State game prediction: Jayhawks desperately need a win (but so does ISU)
The No. 11-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to play No. 3 Iowa State on Monday.
Of course, those rankings won’t be the same by the time tipoff rolls around: KU lost to Baylor on Saturday, while Iowa State lost to K-State.
This is a rematch from earlier this season: KU lost to Iowa State in Ames in January.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 11 Kansas vs. No. 3 Iowa State
When/where: 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse (Lawrence)
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 17-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 7
Betting line: Kansas is a 3-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Iowa State team strengths
Elite defense: The Cyclones rank No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency (92.3). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. KU ranks No. 5 in the same metric.
Free throw lovers: Iowa State ranks No. 38 in free throw rate (39.2).
Crash the glass: ISU ranks No. 72 in offensive rebounding percentage (33.6). By comparison, KU ranks No. 151.
Iowa State team weaknesses
Issues defending the long ball: Iowa State ranks No. 181 in opposing team 3-point percentage (33.6%).
Don’t love 3-pointers: The Cyclones rank 292nd in 3-point rate (28.5).
Lack of bench trust: ISU ranks No. 265 in bench minutes (28.4%).
Iowa State Name to Know
6-foot-4 senior guard Curtis Jones (No. 5)
+ Quality scorer (17.9 PPG)
+ Steals magnet (2 SPG)
+ Good rebounder (4.7 RPG)
+ Good free throw shooter (shooting 82.9% at the line)
- Will turn it over (1.2 TPG)
- Not much of a passer (2.3 APG)
Kansas-ISU game prediction
This game is between two desperate squads. The Jayhawks enter off a bad loss vs. Baylor, while Iowa State has lost two straight games.
Despite their two losses, Iowa State is a dangerous team on both ends. But fortunately for the Jayhawks, this game is at Allen Fieldhouse — a tough place for away teams to come and win games.
Kansas will need to get off to a fast start, and another key comes in defending the paint. Iowa State’s offense is built around 2-pointers, so if KU can force ISU to hoist 3s, that could be a promising sign.
I like the Jayhawks to win and cover.
Kansas 74, Iowa State 70
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-3.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 17-4
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 12-9
KU Player to Watch: Flory Bidunga
In KU’s disappointing loss to Baylor, freshman big Flory Bidunga only played 15 minutes. Kansas coach Bill Self talked about wanting to have other players who provided more scoring on the court.
But the Jayhawks gave up 60 points in the second half and sorely missed Bidunga’s rim protection.
With just one month before March Madness, Kansas must play the freshman more minutes. He’s KU’s best interior defender and provides a rim-runner that the Jayhawks desperately lack otherwise. The advanced stats back up the eye test when it comes to his game — he just doesn’t play consistent minutes.
Kansas will need him against Iowa State. Let’s see if Self gives him more run and he can stay out of foul trouble.
