Kansas Jayhawks game prediction: Why UCF matchup favors KU basketball so much
The No. 11-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to play UCF on Tuesday.
KU lost to Houston on Saturday, while the Knights beat TCU. The Jayhawks previously beat UCF in Orlando on Jan. 5.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 11 Kansas vs. UCF: Game details
When/where: 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 13-6
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 63
Betting line: Kansas is a 13.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
UCF Team Strengths
Good offense: The Knights rank No. 52 in adjusted offensive efficiency (115.2). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the number of points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. KU ranks No. 31 in the same metric.
Free throw converters: UCF ranks No. 34 in free-throw percentage (77%).
Crash the glass: UCF ranks No. 94 in offensive rebounding percentage (33.1). Meanwhile, KU ranks No. 148.
UCF Team Weaknesses
Issues defending the 3: UCF ranks No. 201 in opposing team 3-point percentage (33.9%).
Lack of bench usage: The Knights rank. 280 in bench minutes percentage (27.8)
Shotmaking struggles: UCF ranks No. 297 in 2-point percentage (47.6).
UCF Name to Know
6-foot-7 junior wing Keyshawn Hall (No. 4)
+ Quality scorer (17.2 PPG)
+ Solid free throw shooter (79.8%)
+ Good 3-point shooter (shooting 34.7% on 3-pointers )
+ Good rebounder (6.8 RPG)
- Turnover prone (2.4 TPG)
- Not a passer (2.5 APG)
What the film says about UCF
UCF’s offense is built around 3-point shooting. Three-pointers account for 33.4% of the Knights’ points, which ranks No. 131 overall.
For the Jayhawks, it’ll be the thing to limit. UCF ranks No. 116 in 3-point percentage (34.8%) while struggling to score inside the arc.
A big reason for that is Hall, who shoots 3.8 3-pointers per game. It’s not his only offensive weapon, but his driving ability forces defenders to give him space and leads to open 3-pointers.
That was illustrated against TCU, when Hall quickly dribbled, squared up and canned the 3-pointer before the TCU defender recovered.
For the Jayhawks, the answer is clear — his defender needs to get in his airspace on 3-pointers and recover if he fakes the shot to drive. It will be a big test for freshman Flory Bidunga, with KJ Adams out.
Kansas basketball game prediction
The Knights will look to get revenge after the Jayhawks destroyed them by 51 — 99-48 — earlier in January.
Unfortunately, for the Knights, it’ll be a difficult task. Not only does Kansas look to bounce back after a tough loss to Houston, but UCF doesn’t match up well against KU.
In their last matchup, Kansas got off to a big start, led by KU big man Hunter Dickinson. He had 21 of his 27 points in the first half.
KU’s defense was stellar against UCF’s offense, holding the Knights to 20.6% shooting.
The Jayhawks should roll to victory if they can get off to a fast start and limit the Knights’ offense like the previous meeting.
Kansas 82, UCF 68
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-13.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 16-3
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 12-7
KU Player to Watch: Flory Bidunga
Kansas freshman big Flory Bidunga has become a must-watch player in every game of late. He dropped a career-high 19 points and seven rebounds vs. Houston.
He was also pivotal in turning the game around when the Jayhawks trailed in the second half vs. the Cougars.
Bidunga finished with 12 points and six blocks in 21 minutes vs. UCF, so let’s see if Bidunga can do even better as a starter.
