Kansas Jayhawks game prediction: Houston comes in hot; can KU get home hoops win?
The No. 12-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to play host to Houston on Saturday.
KU beat TCU on Wednesday, while UH beat Utah.
Here’s a scouting report and prediction for Saturday’s game:
No. 12 Kansas vs. No. 7 Houston
When/where: 5:30 p.m. Saturday, Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 15-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: 3
Betting line: Houston is a 1.5-point favorite.
All statistics are from KenPom.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
UH Strengths
Best in the country: The Cougars rank No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency (86.3). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points given up per 100 possessions. KU ranks No. 4.
Elite inside-the-arc defense: Opponents shoot just 39.6% on 2-pointers vs. UH, ranking No. 1 in the country.
Long ball lovers: Houston ranks No. 5 in 3-point percentage (39.9%). KU hits 33.3% of its 3-point attempts.
UH Weaknesses
Sharing and caring? Nope: UH ranks No. 285 in assist rate (47.6).
Nothing easy at the line: The Cougars struggle to get to the line, ranking No. 341 nationally in free-throw rate (26.4%).
Shooting struggles: Houston ranks No. 250 in two-point percentage (48.9).
UH Name to Know
6-foot-1 senior guard LJ Cryer (No. 4)
+ Quality scorer (13.8 PPG)
+ Elite free-throw shooter (FT % of 94.6)
+ Elite 3-point shooter (42.1% 3-point pct)
+ Doesn’t turn the ball over much (.9 TPG)
- Not much of a rebounder (1.6 RPG)
- Not a passer (1.8 APG)
Tale of the tape
Houston doesn’t take many 3-pointers but is among the best in the country at converting them, ranking No. 5 nationally.
Cryer and Emanuel Sharp, who combine for about thirteen 3-point attempts per game, have a lot to do with that.
In the above highlight, Cryer creates space with a shot-fake jab step and then cans a 3-pointer. He doesn’t clear out a ton of space for himself, but it‘s enough.
For the Jayhawks, the key will be running Cryer and Sharp (if he plays — he’s nursing an injured ankle) off the 3-point line.
Don’t be surprised if KU leaves other UH players open in hopes of denying quality looks to Cryer and Sharp.
Game Prediction
The Jayhawks rank No. 34 in adjusted offensive efficiency, so KU will likely have a difficult time against Houston’s top-ranked defense.
On top of that, this Cougars squad makes lot of 3-pointers. The big question is whether Houston sharpshooter Sharp will play.
KU’s path to victory starts with high-energy effort and trying to get big man Hunter Dickinson going early.
If Sharp misses the game, the margin for error is much larger for the Jayhawks.
Either way, it’ll likely be close. But I lean Houston here.
Houston 75, Kansas 71
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Houston (1.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 15-3
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 11-7.
KU Player to watch: Rylan Griffen
The Jayhawks rank No. 329 in 3-point rate (32.4) and are shooting 33.3% from deep.
That second number is worse than last year’s squad, which struggled mightily to make 3-pointers.
It’s been an issue for the Jayhawks since November, primarily for two reasons: quality 3-point shooters like Rylan Griffen are taking fewer 3-point attempts and some players (David Coit) are simply slumping.
Griffen scored just four points vs. TCU and was 1-for-5 on 3-pointers. He’ll look to get back on track vs. Houston.
