KU vs. Creighton basketball prediction: Can Kansas Jayhawks stop Bluejays inside?
The No. 1-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to face Creighton on Wednesday night.
KU defeated Furman on Saturday while the Bluejays defeated Notre Dame.
KU leads the all-time series against Creighton 11-6.
Here’s a scouting report and prediction for Wednesday’s game:
No. 1 Kansas vs. Creighton
When/where: 7:30 p.m., CHI Health Center, Omaha, Nebraska
TV/streaming: FS1
Opponent’s record: 5-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 51
Betting line: Kansas is a 3.5-point favorite.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Creighton Strengths
Good defense overall: Creighton ranks No. 50 in adjusted deficiency (98). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the amount of points allowed per 100 possessions. KU ranks No. 9 in the same metric.
Defends 3s especially well: Opponents are shooting just 30.9% on 3-pointers vs. the Bluejays, ranking No. 89 overall.
Sharing is caring: Creighton ranks No. 13 in assist rate (65.4%).
Creighton Weaknesses
Long-ball woes: Creighton shoots just 31.4% on 3-pointers, ranking No. 241 overall.
Rebounding issues: The Bluejays don’t typically crash the glass, ranking No. 229 in offensive rebounding percentage (28%).
Turnover troubles: Creighton ranks No. 232 in turnover percentage (18.7%).
Creighton Name to Know
7-foot-1 senior center Ryan Kalkbrenner (No. 11)
+ Three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year
+ Great scorer (18.1 PPG)
+ Good rebounder (8.6 RPG)
+ Elite shot blocker (2.2 BPG)
- Not much of a shooter (averaged less than 30% on 3-pointers over last three seasons)
- Isn’t the most efficient at the line (shooting 78.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Kalkbrenner is a monster around the basket.
There’s some question about whether he will play in this game — he’s nursing a lower-body injury. But if he does, he’ll be a factor.
A 7-foot-1 center, he’s shooting a blistering 95.7% at the rim this season. If he’s healthy and gets good positioning down low, Kansas could be in trouble.
In the above clip, he fakes the Texas-Rio Grande Valley center under the basket, spins and lays it in. His efficiency around the rim is the only reason the opposing team’s center bit on the shot-fake.
The Jayhawks need to keep Kalkbrenner out of the post as much as possible. That means KU big man Hunter Dickinson must win the positioning battle more often than not.
If Kalkbrenner does, there’s a very good chance he will score.
Game Prediction
This should be a fun showdown.
A Dickinson-Kalkbrenner matchup would be pivotal in deciding which team wins. Also key: Can the Jayhawks generate quality offense against a good Bluejays defense?
KU’s offensive options and versatility should help against a formidable opponent on the road.
Plus, Creighton has struggled to shoot 3-pointers this season. It would be surprising if the Bluejays’ streaky shooting picks up against a stout KU defense.
I like the Jayhawks in this one.
Kansas 80, Creighton 75
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-3.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 7-0
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 2-5
KU Player to watch: Hunter Dickinson
For better or worse, all eyes are on Dickinson.
If Kalkbrenner plays, Dickinson will have a difficult matchup defensively. It won’t be easy offensively, either.
Kansas gets an undeniable boost if Dickinson can put up something in the neighborhood of an efficient 15 points and 8-10 rebounds.
This story was originally published December 4, 2024 at 5:30 AM.
