KU basketball vs. Furman game prediction: Can Kansas stop Furman on 3-pointers?
The No. 1-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team plays host to Furman Saturday night.
KU defeated Duke on Tuesday, while Furman defeated Seattle. Both games took place at the Vegas Showdown in Las Vegas.
Here’s a scouting report and prediction for the game:
No. 1 Kansas vs. Furman
When/where: 5 p.m. Saturday, Allen Fieldhouse
TV/streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 7-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: 117
Betting line: Kansas is a 20.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Furman Strengths
Good defense: Furman ranks No. 90 in adjusted defensive efficiency (100.7). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the amount of points allowed per 100 possessions. KU ranks No. 14 in the same metric.
Defending 3s: Opponents are shooting just 23.9% from 3-point range vs. Furman, ranking No. 4 overall.
Sharing is caring: The Paladins rank No. 2 in assist rate (71.2).
Furman Weaknesses
Free-throw struggles: Furman is shooting just 65.1% at the free-throw line this season.
Rebounding issues: The Paladins don’t crash the glass, ranking No. 338 in offensive rebounding percentage (22.4%).
Weak schedule: Don’t be fooled by Furman’s 7-0 record; the Paladins’ strength of schedule ranks No. 253 in the nation.
Furman Name to Know
6-foot senior guard Pjay Smith (No. 2)
+ Great scorer (19.2 points per game)
+ Solid rebounder (3.3 rebounds per game)
+ Willing passer (4.2 assists per game)
+ Good at getting steals (1 steal per game)
+ Great 3-point shooter (53.3% on 3-pointers)
- Turnover prone (averaging 1.3 turnovers per game)
- Isn’t the most efficient at the line (shooting 75.0% on free throws)
Tale of the Tape
If there’s one thing Furman loves to do, it’s shoot 3-pointers.
The Paladins rank No. 18 in 3-point rate and shoot a blistering 38.4% from deep.
Here, Smith drew the defense’s attention by driving, which led to a wide-open teammate in the corner. Naturally, Smith passed the ball to Garrett Hein, who canned the 3-pointer.
For the Jayhawks, the key will be to run Furman off the 3-point line and prevent corner 3s.
Hein isn’t exactly a shot creator, with 100% of his 3-pointers coming via assists. Three-pointers account for 35.3% of his shots.
For Kansas, the solution is simple: Don’t get sucked into the paint when a player like Smith drives to the hoop. Smith is also a threat beyond the arc, so KU can’t play off him.
Each Jayhawk need to get into his opponent’s airspace, rotate properly and limit Furman’s 3s.
Game Prediction
This isn’t exactly the easiest non conference game for the Jayhawks.
Furman is a formidable foe on both ends of the court. The Paladins put pressure on opponents with their passing and 3-point shooting.
On top of that, Furman has been clamping down on the other team’s 3-point shooters defensively.
The Jayhawks should win thanks to their overwhelming talent and options on offense. But unless they hit their 3-pointers at a decent rate, it’d be a surprise if KU covers the spread.
Kansas 80, Furman 65
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Furman (+20.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 6-0
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 2-4
KU Player to watch: AJ Storr
Storr was inserted into KU’s starting lineup against Duke on Tuesday and turned in one of his best performances of the young season.
He didn’t think too much and played to his strengths, coming up with crucial buckets in big moments for the Jayhawks.
Let’s see if he can keep the momentum going Saturday against Furman.
