KU basketball vs. Duke game prediction: Is Kansas ready for Cooper Flagg?
The No. 1-ranked Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team is set to face fellow blue blood Duke in the 2024 Las Vegas Showdown on Tuesday night.
KU defeated UNC Wilmington on Tuesday, while the Blue Devils defeated Arizona on Friday.
KU has a 6-8 record vs. Duke in the all-time series.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 11 Duke
When/where: 8 p.m., T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent record: 4-1
Opponent KenPom ranking: 4
Betting line: Kansas is a 2.5-point underdog
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Duke Team Strengths
Elite defense: Duke ranks No. 1 in adjusted deficiency (87.5). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the amount of points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. KU ranks No. 14 in the same metric.
Defends the long ball well: Opponents are shooting just 25.8% on 3-pointers vs. Duke, ranking No. 20 overall.
Tall team: The Blue Devils rank No. 1 in average height, with a player average of 6-foot-6. Duke’s starters against Arizona stood 6-5, 6-6, 6-7, 6-9 and 7-2.
Duke Team Weaknesses
Struggles at the free throw line: Duke is shooting just 73.4% on free throws this season.
And they don’t get there much: The Blue Devils rank No. 337 in free throw rate (24.1%).
No trust in the bench: Duke coach Jon Scheyer doesn’t use his bench much, as the Blue Devils rank No. 236 in bench-minutes percentage (29.8)
Duke Name to Know
6-foot-9 freshman guard Cooper Flagg (No. 2)
+ Voted Preseason ACC Rookie of the Year and announced to Preseason All-ACC first team.
+ Considered a lock for a top-5 NBA Draft selection in the upcoming draft.
+ Good scorer (17.8 PPG)
+ Great rebounder (8.8 rebounds per game)
+ Willing passer (3.8 APG)
+ Gets steals and blocks ( averaging 1.8 blocks and steals per game)
- Struggling to hit 3-pointers (26.1% on 3-pointers)
- Turnover prone (averaging 2.8 turnovers per game)
- Not the best foul shooter (shooting 73.9% at the line)
Tale of the Tape
Cooper Flagg’s athleticism is simply outrageous.
On one highlight from the last game, he dribbled the ball through a sea of Arizona defenders, jumped outside the restricted circle and finished with an authoritative dunk.
One thing about Flagg is that if he sees an opening, he’s going toward the rim. So far, nearly half (46.1%) of his shots have come at the rim. He’s shooting a staggering 71.4% on those looks.
For the Jayhawks, the key to limiting Flagg comes by cutting off his driving lanes and rotating if he does get to the rim.
Expect Kansas to put KJ Adams on him, as Adams is stronger than Flagg and possibly the best one-on-one defender in KU’s starting lineup. Adams will need to stay in front of Flagg and do so without picking up quick fouls.
Game prediction
I can’t wait for this game.
Both squads will be tested during this matchup.
The Jayhawks’ offense will go against arguably the best defense in the country. On top of that, Duke has talent across the board, led by future NBA lottery pick Flagg.
The game will likely come down to a few things: how KU’s offense does vs. Duke — can Kansas make more 3-pointers vs. quality opponents?
On top of that, can the Jayhawks stop Flagg from taking over the game?
It’ll likely be a close matchup, but KU’s crunch-time defense makes me think the Jayhawks can pull away late.
Kansas 78, Duke 74
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (+2.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 5-0
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 1-4
KU Player to Watch: KJ Adams
Adams may have the most crucial role against Duke — he has to limit Flagg. If that matchup goes well, the Jayhawks will be far more likely to win Tuesday’s game.
If Flagg looks as good as he did vs. Arizona (24 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal), it could be a long night for the Jayhawks.
This story was originally published November 25, 2024 at 10:34 AM.
