Five teams Kansas basketball should want to avoid in the NCAA Tournament
After an early exit from the Big 12 Tournament, Kansas awaits Selection Sunday.
Although KU stars Kevin McCullar (knee) and Hunter Dickinson (shoulder) missed Wednesday’s game against Cincinnati, Jayhawks coach Bill Self said he expects them to be available to play in the NCAA Tournament.
Kansas has lost four out of its last five games to end the season, but Self pointed toward KU’s impressive resume when fully healthy, which includes wins against UConn, Tennessee and Houston.
“We have struggled of late, but we haven’t been whole yet either,” Self said.”I mean, gosh dang it, if we can get whole we can play with anybody. We’ve proven that. And it’s not excuses.”
ESPN and CBS are projecting Kansas as a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
ESPN has KU in the Midwest Regional (Detroit) facing VCU in Spokane, Washington.
Meanwhile, CBS projects Kansas in the Midwest Region matched up with Vermont in Spokane for the first round.
As KU waits to find out who/where it’ll play in the first round, here’s a closer look at five teams the Jayhawks should want to avoid in their quest for another NCAA Championship.
Alabama
Projected seed by ESPN: No. 4 seed in the South Regional (Dallas)
KenPom ranking: 12
Record: 22-10
Alabama has one of the best offenses in the nation, ranking No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency (126.1) — the number of points scored per 100 possessions.
It’s not a one-dimensional offense either, as the Crimson Tide ranks among the top 30 in three different categories: 2-point percentage (No. 10), free-throw percentage (No. 10), and 3-point percentage (No. 27).
Perhaps the worst part for KU? Alabama shoots 36.9% from deep while shooting at the 16th-highest 3-point rate in the nation. As we’ve seen many times for Kansas throughout this season, an opponent that shoots the long ball well usually leads to a loss for the Jayhawks.
Kansas can’t keep up with opposing teams from deep. In eight different games this season, the Jayhawks were limited to exactly three 3-point makes, their lowest total of the season.
“It’s like they’re shooting at the fair, you know, where the balls can’t actually fit through the goals,” Self remarked after the Big 12 Tournament defeat. “So we gotta start shooting at a bigger basket and, you know, we’ve got about seven to eight days that we can get some of that back.”
Also an issue in this matchup: Alabama has two near-7-footers in its starting lineup — Jarin Stevenson and Grant Nelson — so it’d be a tough battle on the boards for the Jayhawks. Alabama ranks No. 23 in offensive rebounding percentage (35.3).
Kansas hasn’t often won the offensive rebounding battle and shot better than opponents from deep very frequently, so defeating the Crimson Tide would be difficult.
The potential matchup to avoid here would come in a No. 4 vs. No. 5 meeting, if the teams were seeded there.
Princeton
Projected seed by ESPN: No. 12 seed in the East Regional (Boston)
KenPom ranking: 56
Record: 24-3
If Princeton is matched up against the Jayhawks — a big if, as the Ivy League Tournament continues, with the No. 1-seeded Tigers in the semifinals, being played Saturday — there’s a decent chance for an upset. Like Alabama, the Tigers have a balanced offense that takes 3-pointers at a high clip.
Princeton ranks No. 15 in 2-point percentage (56.4%) and ranks No. 2 in the nation in free-throw percentage (80.9%).
The most impressive part of the Tigers’ offense is their lack of turnovers, as Princeton leads the nation in turnover percentage (11.9). This could spell trouble for Kansas, which often relies on turning opponent turnovers into fast-break points, especially when the Jayhawks get into cold offensive spurts.
KU ranks No. 50 in fast-break points, frequently ignited by an opponent turnover.
Princeton also takes 3-pointers at a very high rate, ranking No. 4 in 3-point rate with a staggering 40.4% of their points coming from deep. Tigers guard Xaivian Lee would also test the Kansas guards. He’s averaging 17.7 points and 5.9 rebounds, despite being 6-foot-3.
There’s certainly no such thing as a guaranteed win, but the Jayhawks can get closer to avoiding a potential early exit by not playing Princeton early. This matchup could happen in a 5-12 or 4-13 game.
Marquette
Projected seed by ESPN: No. 2 seed in the Midwest
KenPom ranking: 13
Record: 24-8
These two teams matched up in the Maui Invitation, and Shaka Smart’s squad largely dominated Kansas due to their havoc press defense.
The Golden Eagles have continued their winning ways by playing balanced basketball — MU ranks top-20 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency.
One of the Jayhawks’ biggest issues would be guarding Marquette’s Oso Ighodaro, who scored 21 points against Kansas in the last matchup. The 6-foot-11 forward proved too quick for Hunter Dickinson and too tall for KJ Adams in that first meeting.
The havoc press is a recipe for disaster for this Jayhawks team, which has been susceptible to having high turnover games.
Plus, Marquette plays a physical brand of basketball, which Dickinson has struggled with at times this season.
As much as I’m sure KU fans would love a rematch against Smart and his squad, it’s best to avoid this team if Kansas can.
VCU
Projected seed by ESPN: No. 13 seed in the Midwest
KenPom ranking: 80
Record: 21-12
Shaka Smart and now VCU ... sorry for the bad memories, KU fans.
VCU is currently projected as KU’s first-round opponent, according to ESPN, assuming the Rams do indeed win their conference tournament as the highest-ranked team remaining as of Saturday. The Rams aren’t a great matchup for the Jayhawks for multiple reasons.
First — and stop me if you’ve heard this before — VCU shoots 36.6% from deep and ranks No. 37 in 3-point rate. Conversely, opponents only shoot 31.4% from deep against the Rams—a bad sign for Kansas.
Already, KU struggles to take and make 3-pointers.
Second, VCU does an excellent job of limiting opponents inside the arc, ranking No. 35 in opponent 2-point percentage.
The Jayhawks also score 59% of their points through 2-pointers, so the Rams could make an OK offensive team look even worse.
Don’t let VCU’s potential seeding fool you — the metrics point to them being a far better team than their seed and that’s why Kansas should want to avoid them early.
Drake
Projected seed by ESPN: No. 10 seed in the West (Los Angeles)
KenPom ranking: 51
Record: 28-6
Not only does Drake have a good offense — ranking No. 37 in adjusted offensive efficiency — but the Bulldogs are also one of the best rebounding teams in the nation.
Drake ranks first in the nation in opponent offensive-rebounding percentage, which means that the Bulldogs do an excellent job of keeping teams off the glass.
Drake also has a 4-1 record in Quad 1 games.
Plus, the Bulldogs rank No. 65 in average player height, so the size could be a significant issue for the Jayhawks — especially if Hunter Dickinson misses time. Winning the battle on the boards will be a difficult task for Kansas, which struggled with that very thing against a big Cincinnati team.
The Jayhawks were outrebounded 16-8 on the offensive glass in their Big 12 Tournament loss.
Defensively, KU would have to limit Drake guard Tucker DeVries.
DeVries would be a difficult matchup for KU. He’s averaging 21.8 points and 6.8 rebounds. The guard has been red-hot as of late, averaging 26.2 points in his last five games entering the weekend.
He’s shooting 36.4% from deep on 7.2 attempts per game this season, so he could single-handedly match KU’s 3-point total in a matchup ... or eclipse it.
For a Kansas team that struggles with the long ball and rebounding, it’s best to avoid a team like Drake.
