Can shorthanded KU Jayhawks defeat Cincinnati? Prediction and betting odds
The No. 6-seeded Kansas men’s basketball team will face No. 11-seeded Cincinnati in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament on Wednesday.
The Jayhawks (22-9, 10-8 Big 12) lost to Houston on Saturday. Meanwhile, Cincinnati defeated West Virginia on Tuesday in the opening round of the tournament.
Kansas defeated Cincinnati in a prior meeting in January.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
No. 6 seed Kansas vs. No. 11 seed Cincinnati
When/where: 8:30 p.m., T-Mobile Center
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 19-13, 7-11 Big 12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 42
Betting line: Cincinnati is a 1-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Cincinnati Team Strengths
Effective defense: The Bearcats rank No. 23 in adjusted defensive efficiency (97.4). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the amount of points allowed per 100 possessions. By comparison, Kansas ranks No. 11.
Defending inside the arc: Cincinnati ranks No. 39 in opposing team 2-point percentage (46.5%).
Glass cleaners: Cincinnati ranks No. 8 in offensive rebounding percentage (37.7).
Cincinnati Team Weaknesses
Three-point struggles: Cincinnati ranks No. 249 in 3-point percentage (32.6%).
Free-throw struggles: The Bearcats rank No. 297 in free-throw percentage (69%).
Low free-throw rate: Not only does Cincinnati struggle at the line, the Bearcats also don’t get to the free-throw line much. The Bearcats rank No. 297 in free-throw rate (28.7%).
Cincinnati Name to Know
6–foot-6 sophomore guard Dan Skillings (No. 0)
+ Leading scorer (12.1 points per game)
+ Great rebounder (6.4 rebounds per game)
- Struggles from deep (shooting 29.3% from the 3-point line)
- Bad free-throw shooter (shooting 66.1% from the free-throw line)
- Turnover prone (1.5 turnovers per game)
- Not much of a passer (1.5 assists per game)
Tale of the Tape
If there’s one thing the Bearcats do very well, it’s make the most of second-chance opportunities. Here, the Cincinnati guard missed the layup, but Jamille Reynolds got the board and turned it into the dunk.
For the Jayhawks, it’ll be an uphill battle to keep the Bearcats off the boards. Not only is Cincinnati one of the best in the nation at getting offensive rebounds, but Kansas will be without Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. — two of its best rebounders.
For KU, this means that KJ Adams must be at his best rebounding the ball, and boxing out will be key. The Jayhawks will also need to communicate on rebounds to avoid Cincinnati from taking advantage of KU’s small lineup.
Game Prediction
Boy, this matchup should be interesting.
As the Jayhawks are without stars McCullar and Dickinson, not only does Kansas lack scoring, but rebounding will be a major issue.
On the bright side for Kansas? The spacing for the Jayhawks should be a lot better with Adams at the five, Johnny Furphy at the four and Nick Timberlake at the three.
It would seem a huge ingredient for Kansas in this one is to take and make 3-pointers, a major struggle for this Jayhawks team.
But I don’t see it happening. So I expect a Bearcats win.
Prediction : Cincinnati 74, Kansas 65
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Cincinnati (-1)
Shreyas’ season record: 22-7
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 14-15
