Does Kansas shoot enough 3s to be a national title contender? What history says
The Kansas men’s basketball team has a problem — one that might be bigger than the rest.
No, it isn’t the lack of depth or injuries affecting multiple players. Nor is it KU’s rebounding struggles or recent defensive issues.
These are all concerns, but another one has been prevalent for the Jayhawks all season.
Kansas doesn’t shoot 3s with any real volume. In fact, Kansas ranks No. 323 in the nation in 3-point attempt rate (30.3).
The Jayhawks only score 24.1% of their points from 3-point shots, which ranks No. 319 nationally.
Kansas attempts 17.5 3-pointers per game and makes about 6.1 of them, ranking No. 104 in 3-point percentage (34.7%). Kansas ranks dead last in the Big 12 in made 3s per game.
KU’s opponents are making eight 3-pointers a game while shooting about 33% from deep. The Jayhawks have taken 418 3-pointers this season. Their opponents have taken 618.
In conference play, Kansas has the following 3-point shooting marks:
- Three-point percentage: 32.0% (11th)
- Three-pointers made per game: 5.3 (14th/last)
- Opponent 3-point percentage: 34.8% (9th)
Kansas coach Bill Self pointed out KU’s perimeter shooting issues in December.
“Guys, if we don’t make perimeter shots, it’s going to be a long conference season,” Self said. “I’m not being negative, but the way people are playing (us), we’ve got to figure out a way (to make 3s).”
To this point, they haven’t.
KU’s national ranking in 3-point rate is the lowest of the Bill Self era. The last time a Kansas team ranked outside the top 300 in 3-point rate was 2014-15, a team that shot better from 3 (37.9%, No. 48 nationally), made more 3s (eight per game) and still lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to Wichita State.
That, coupled with the Jayhawks’ 3-point percentage dropping in Big 12 play, is a definite cause for concern. Kansas has only made more 3-pointers against a Big 12 opponent one time — KU’s 74-69 win over Cincinnati on Jan. 22.
Self believes it’s not just about KU’s 3-point attempts, but also the defense against the long ball.
“The big thing is if we’re going to get outscored by 15 points or 18 points beyond the arc, I would probably look at it as our defense as much as us needing to take that more,” Self said. “Because that’s not going to be the strength of this year’s team.”
Self also noted the absence of guard Kevin McCullar, who has missed the last two games due to injury, has added to the shooting woes.
“We’ve known all along that we’re not going to be a heavy-volume 3-point shooting team,” he said. “When you take out Kevin that’s probably the guy that’s attempted the most 3s. I’d say that’s probably played a little bit of a factor as why we’ve not shot as many of late.”
KU’s low 3-point shooting rate could be a factor come March.
There isn’t much precedent for a team that shoots 3s like Kansas winning the NCAA Tournament, at least in recent years.
Dating back to the 2013-14 season when UConn beat Kentucky to win the title, there have only been two championship-winning teams who ranked outside the top 200 in 3-point rate. Those were 2021-22 champion Kansas (No. 287) and 2016-17 champion UNC (No. 306).
So far, Self’s December warning about KU’s 3-point shooting has come true. And whether it’s the offense or the defense, there isn’t much time left to fix it.
Kansas has only six games left in the regular season before the Big 12 Tournament and NCAA Tournament, so the Jayhawks are on a ticking clock.
They need to shoot — and make — more 3s, or find a way to keep opponents from making as many. If not, they’ll have a problem come March, playing single-elimination tournaments to end their season.
It just takes one opponent to get hot and send them packing.
That said, Kansas forward Hunter Dickinson — who is 18-for-53 on 3s, 34% — said he has confidence the Jayhawks have enough shooting on the roster.
“I think it’s known we aren’t the Warriors when it comes to 3s, but I feel like we have guys who are capable,” Dickinson said. “I think guys really just play within themselves. I don’t think we have too many straight shooters other than Johnny (Furphy) or Nick (Timberlake). I feel like a lot of the other guys, shooting is something they do well, but not what they’re known for.
“That might not be our strongest suit, but I feel very confident in guys’ shooting abilities.”
