How KU basketball can win Big 12 Tournament championship game vs. Texas Longhorns
After defeating Iowa State on Thursday, the No. 1-seeded Kansas men’s basketball team will play No. 2-seeded Texas in the Big 12 Tournament final on Saturday at T-Mobile Center.
The two teams last met in March, with the Longhorns beating the Jayhawks 75-59 at Moody Center. KU split the season series, winning the other matchup in Allen Fieldhouse.
Texas enters Saturday off a 66-60 win over No. 6 TCU on Friday. TCU had bounced K-State from the tournament in advancing to the Big 12 semifinal round.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
Saturday’s game: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 2 Texas
When/where: 5 p.m., T-Mobile Center
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 27- 8, 12-6 Big 12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 9
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Texas Team Strengths
Elite offense: Texas ranks 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency (116.3). Adjusted offensive efficiency is the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions, adjusted for the opponent. Transfer guard Marcus Carr is among UT’s dangerous offensive weapons.
Defensive force: UT ranks 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency (95.5).
Sharing is caring: Texas is 35th in the nation in assist rate (57.3%), meaning more than half of the Longhorns’ scores come from assists
Texas Team Weaknesses
Struggles beyond the arc: UT ranks 171st in three-point percentage (34.1)
Don’t draw fouls: Texas ranks 166th in foul rate (31.9%)
Undersized: The Longhorns are 268th in average height and play smaller at times
Texas Name to Know
6-foot-4 senior guard Marcus Carr
+ Solid shooter (34.8% from three)
+ Quick hands (1.1 steals per game)
+ Creates for others (21 games this season with four-plus assists)
+ Protecting the ball (eight straight games with 0 or 1 turnover entering Saturday)
- Not an elite finisher at the rim (60%)
- Has been slumping (30% or below shooting in five of his last six games)
Tale of the Tape
If there’s one thing UT loves to do, it’s score inside the arc.
Here, Texas’ Chris Bishop received the ball inside, pulled off an up-and-under move and dunked the ball.
The Jayhawks must do their work early to keep the Longhorns from establishing deep position inside. Ernest Udeh could offer a bigger option to protect the paint if the Longhorns are getting to the rim against KJ Adams.
The Longhorns also love to attack the paint in transition. UT is shooting 69.9% at the rim on such plays.
Here, Bishop quickly raced down the floor and made the dunk before TCU could catch up or get set. The Jayhawks will obviously want to avoid turnovers, and especially live-ball turnovers. When they do happen, KU must get back, form a wall in the paint and keep track of cutters.
Game Prediction
KU is coming off a win against Iowa State on Friday, the best KU has played in some time.
It’s been six days since UT blew out Kansas 75-59. Texas did it primarily through its defense, holding the Jayhawks below 40% in every shooting category besides free throws (66.7%). So naturally, the matchup to watch in this game is Kansas’ offense vs. the Longhorns’ defense.
The key to success for KU is to make sure the ball keeps moving — the Jayhawks only had ten assists last game against UT. Another pivotal aspect is to ensure KU star Jalen Wilson isn’t the only one scoring, so that means trying to get players like Kansas sharpshooter Gradey Dick open shots early.
On the flip side, KU’s paint defense needs to be much better than it was in that last meeting. Kansas found itself in foul trouble last time against UT, as the Longhorns kept getting to the rim, which forced the Jayhawks to step in and commit fouls.
The bottom line: I don’t think KU will have those same foul issues, and I think the defense will play better. I think Kansas pulls this out narrowly with more to play for — a championship, in fact, and possibly the No. 1-overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Kansas 77, Texas 72
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-1.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 16-7
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 13-10
KU Player to watch: Dajuan Harris
The barometer for a great offensive game for Harris isn’t through his playmaking, but rather how aggressive he is trying to score. To that end, KU’s point guard will be pivotal for several reasons.
First, KU needs to seek out better shots, which starts with Harris’ ability to find good looks for his teammates. Second, Kansas needs him to be fearless around the rim. He’s capable of putting the UT bigs into foul trouble, and his driving can open up the floor for KU’s offensive stars in Wilson and Dick.
Finally, Harris needs to bring his A-game on defense against the lethal UT guard tandem of Carr and Sir’Jabari Rice. Harris certainly did that on Friday against ISU.
If Harris can accomplish those things, Kansas is likely to walk away with the title. Even without big numbers, there’s a reason why ISU’s coach called him the “heartbeat” of KU’s team on Friday.
This story was originally published March 11, 2023 at 5:30 AM.
